Market Studies

The Financial Times Stock Exchange Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) Index reported a total return of 27.15 percent in 2014, outpacing that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor 500, and NASDAQ, according to a report from Trepp. In an 11-month period from the end of 2013 to November 2014, the REIT market cap expanded from $670 billion to $890 billion.

Employment statistics released earlier in the week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) fall right in line with analysts' recent predictions that the housing market will make a comeback in 2015. According to the BLS November 2014 Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report, unemployment rates declined year-over-year in 341 out of 372 metro areas in the U.S., while 12 areas reported jobless rates of at least 10 percent and 147 metros posted jobless rates of less than 5 percent.

Improvements in economic fundamentals, notably employment growth among millennials, will fuel significant increases in home sales and housing starts and a modest rise in home prices in 2015, according to CoreLogic's 2015 Housing Outlook released earlier this week. Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic, predicted an increase of 9 percent in home sales and a 14 percent spike in housing starts for the coming year in the report.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 92.6 in December from its November reading of 91.0, according to the latest monthly Consumer Confidence Survey released Tuesday.

As the new year rolls in, DS News is taking a look back at some of the biggest market studies headlines and stories of 2014.

November's mortgage default risk index was reported at 11.69 percent, its highest level in two years, according to a briefing released by the American Enterprise Institute's International Center on Housing Risk. The November default risk index crept upward by 0.4 percentage points from October, when it was reported at 11.29 percent.

The national MiMi value stands at 74.5, which is up 0.12 percent from September to October and up 0.42 percent over the past three months. Year-over-year, the national housing market has improved 4.48 percent. While still well short of the all-time MiMi high of 122.5, reached in June 2006, the national index is markedly better than it was in September 2011, when the housing market was at 60.3.

A new forecast of existing-home sales for the month of December has projected activity rising but still finishing the year on a low note after a weaker than expected November. In its latest Nowcast projections, online real estate auction company Auction.com calls for pre-owned home sales to fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 4.79 and 5.18 million for December, with a targeted number of 4.98 million.

According to BEA, the latest quarterly estimate includes improved contributions from consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent compared to Q2's 2.5 percent gain. Also improved in the third report was the contribution from nonresidential fixed investment, which increased 8.9 percent. Residential fixed investment—a measure of the housing market's direct contribution to economic activity—increased just 3.2 percent.

A popular index gauging leading U.S. economic indicators grew for a third straight month in November, signaling moderate economic growth as the year closes out. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.6 percent in November to 105.5, the group reported. Released monthly, the index gauges the potential for future economic growth based on 10 leading components, including homebuilding permits, weekly initial unemployment claims, and average consumer expectations for business conditions.