The delinquent unpaid balance for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) increased to $47.82 billion in February, soaring $1.87 billion from January, according to the latest ""Monthly CMBS Delinquency Report"":https://www.realpoint.com/PublicDocDisplay.aspx?i=bMDgyzQuqEI%3d&m=i0Pyc%2bx7qZZ4%2bsXnymazBA%3d%3d&s=LviRtUKXqs8kml5dHt7FTeE2SZmY0Fvqd4iX49Mk%2f9UapyiFTEO6TA%3d%3d released Sunday by investment rating agency ""Realpoint, LLC."":https://www.realpoint.com/RPLogin.aspx[IMAGE]
The overall delinquent unpaid balance was up almost 300 percent from February 2009, when only $11.98 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported. In addition, it was more than 21 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007.
The distressed 90-plus day, foreclosure, and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 26th straight month--up 9 percent from January and 420 percent higher than the same month in 2009.[COLUMN_BREAK]
Overall, the total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the February 2010 remittance was $797.06 billion, down slightly from $797.3 billion in January. The resultant delinquency ratio for February jumped to 6 percent, up from 5.76 percent reported one month prior. This was more than four times the 1.43 percent reported one year ago and more than 21 times the Realpoint-recorded low point of 0.283 percent from June 2007.
According to Realpoint's report, more than 60 percent of the delinquent unpaid balance through February 2010 came from transactions issued in 2006 and 2007, with nearly 33 percent of all delinquency found in 2007-issued transactions. When this review was extended to include the 2005 vintage, an additional 17 percent of total delinquency was found. Thus, nearly 77 percent of CMBS delinquency came from 2005 to 2007 vintage transactions.
Looking forward, Realpoint expects the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along it current trend of growth.
Based upon an updated trend analysis, the rating agency projects the delinquency percentage to grow between 8 percent and 9 percent--$60 to $70 billion--through mid-2010, potentially approaching and surpassing 11 percent to 12 percent under more heavily stressed scenarios through the year-end 2010.