The total value of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) in the United States right now is $186.9 billion, including properties in default, foreclosure, and lender REO, according to data from the research firm ""Real Capital Analytics"":http://www.rcanalytics.com.
[IMAGE] The Transwestern company ""Delta Associates"":http://www.deltaassociates.com/ says this tally represents an increase of 12 percent, or $20.1 billion, since June and following recent declines, means CRE distress is back to the level it was in March of this year.
""We think a plateau in the $165-$200 billion range may be with us for a while, as lenders continue to extend debt[COLUMN_BREAK]
obligations and commercial property values are no longer falling in many markets,"" Delta Associates said in commentary released to DSNews.com, noting that property values are beginning to rise in some metro markets, with deals no longer underwater.
The company's forecast gives fuel to the notion that the CRE market may have finally found its bottom, but Delta says the real test of the distress plateau will be seen later this year and in 2011, with some $600 billion in loans coming due and experts predicting up to 100 banks failing in the next two quarters alone.
According to Delta's market assessment, the office sector continues to represent the largest share of distressed real estate at $47 billion Ã¢â‚¬" pulling well ahead of apartments and hotel properties.
In a change from the previous quarter, the apartment and hotel sectors traded places, with hotels now in second place with $36.6 billion in properties in default or foreclosure, plus lender REO, followed by apartments, which has $35.3 billion, according to Delta Associates' report.
The company says Manhattan remains the market with the highest volume of distress, followed by Los Angeles-Orange County.