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Home | Tag Archives: Capital Economics

Tag Archives: Capital Economics

Homeownership Rate Drops to 20-Year Low


*+-The rental vacancy rate, meanwhile, fell 0.4 percentage points to 7.0 percent on a combination of tighter supply conditions and a rise in demand as homeownership looks like a distant dream for some Americans. In a survey last month, Freddie Mac found 61 percent of adults living in rental housing don't plan to purchase a home within the next three years as housing costs and credit challenges keep them on the sidelines.

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Fueled by Lower Gas Prices, Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level in a Decade


*+-According to the group conducting the confidence survey, January's increase—which lifted the index to its highest level since 2004—was driven by an improvement in personal finances, with more consumers reporting increases in household income than any time in the past decade. They're also more optimistic about the labor outlook as job growth continues on a steady track.

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Report: Consumer Sentiment Highest in 14 Months


*+-The increase in the headline index was driven by a more than four-point improvement in the gauge of consumer expectations, which rose to 75.6. On the other hand, the Current Conditions Index fell more a point to 98.5. According to Paul Diggle, U.S. economist for Capital Economics, the small decline "could reflect the weaker pace of payroll growth in August or even the slowdown in some measures of housing market activity."

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Q1 GDP Declines; ‘Marked Turnaround’ Expected for Q2

Short Sales

*+-The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released Thursday its second look at gross domestic product(GDP) for Q1, estimating an annualized 1.0 percent decline as private inventory investment dropped further than originally reported. BEA’s first estimate, released late April, put growth at an estimated annual rate of 0.1 percent compared to Q4’s final rate of 2.6 percent.

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Economists Surprised by Drop in Consumer Sentiment

*+-The University of Michigan's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment report shows a drop in confidence for November--and Capital Economics' Amna Asaf is at a loss to explain why. The index fell from 73.2 to a two-year low of 72.0 in the first November report. With the economy in a relatively healthier position compared to last month, Asaf--an economist for the macroeconomics research firm--says the decline is something of a surprise.

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Lawmakers’ Lack of Governance Has Minimal Impact on Confidence

*+-Are Americans so accustomed to the ineffectiveness and triviality of Congress that the threat of a third week with essentially no governing body barely registers a blip on consumers' confidence scale? The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment was better than many analysts were expecting given the situation in Washington, dropping from 77.5 at the end of September to 75.2 at mid-October.

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Report: Sellers Returning as Investors Pull Out

*+-In Capital Economics' latest edition of US Housing Market Analyst, property economist Paul Diggle notes investor activity has fallen off nearly one-fifth over the last four months, with investor sales dropping to 18 percent as inventory of distressed homes declines. On the other hand, the ongoing rise in prices has encouraged more sellers to enter the market, which should temper further gains. ""With sellers motivated by the earlier rise in house prices, we expect the loosening in supply conditions to go much further over the next year,"" Diggle said.

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Delinquencies Continue Decline; Highest Among Alt-A, Subprime Loans

*+-Delinquencies and foreclosures are continuing to decline with higher concentrations among Alt-A and subprime loans, according to the latest Mortgage Market Monitor from Lender Processing Services (LPS). Foreclosures are down 31 percent year-over-year in July, while delinquencies are down 9 percent, according to LPS data. Both delinquencies and foreclosures declined over the 12-month period among all types of loans, except Alt-A and subprime loans.

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