Tag Archives: Foresight Analytics

Two community-based lenders in California and two in Georgia were shut down over the weekend by banking regulators. These latest closings bring the number of names on the FDIC's failed bank list to 22 for the 2011 calendar year to date. The FDIC has said it expects the number of bank closures in 2011 to be less than the 157 that failed in 2010. But if the pace of 20-plus every two months continues, institutional failures will remain extremely elevated by historical standards.

State and federal regulators seized control of four more community-based lenders over the weekend - in Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin. That brings the failed-bank tally to 11 for the year. Commercial real estate (CRE) woes remain front and center for failed banks, according to the analysts at Foresight Analytics. In fact, for 10 of the 11 banks that have been shut down since the beginning of the year, the company says CRE loans contributed more than half of the banks' nonperforming loans.

Third-quarter delinquency rates for both residential and commercial mortgages will increase, particularly among smaller lenders, according to preliminary estimates released by Foresight Analytics. Final figures for the third quarter 2010 are not due out until late November, but based on earnings reports and call report filings from many smaller banks, Foresight Analytics offers its advance estimates of what we'll see in the final mortgage delinquency numbers for the July to September time period.

In a rare break from what has been the norm throughout the recession, this weekend saw no bank closings. Since January 2008, more than 280 banks and thrifts have collapsed, most as a direct result of problems in the real estate markets. The research firm Foresight Analytics estimates that 200, and possibly 300 to 400, banks are at risk of failure over the next 12 to 24 months, but the company says a number of community banks have begun to shed some of their problem commercial real estate loans.