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The latest economic forecast from Fannie Mae shows that the underwhelming performance of the economy in the first three months of the year and a shrinking GDP have significantly dulled the optimism economists once had for the overall 2014 economy.

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) falling to 4.14 percent (0.5 point) for the week ending June 26, a continued slide from 4.17 percent last week. A year ago, the 30-year fixed average was 4.46 percent, an increase of more than half a percentage point over the week prior.

In its third and final estimate of first-quarter growth, the Department of Commerce recorded an annualized 2.9 percent decline in GDP throughout the year's first months. While analysts expected GDP growth to shrink further following the last estimate of a 1.0 percent decline, the reported number represents a sharper downturn than the 1.8 percent contraction that had been forecast.

Despite a disappointing first quarter and a mediocre second quarter, Freddie Mac still expects the economy to improve throughout the second half of 2014. The company is, however, tempering its New Year's optimism. In its June U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook, Freddie offers a mid-year assessment that sees more humble growth in gross domestic product that mirrors the 2 to 2.5 percent growth that the economy has seen the past few years.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released Thursday its second look at gross domestic product(GDP) for Q1, estimating an annualized 1.0 percent decline as private inventory investment dropped further than originally reported. BEA’s first estimate, released late April, put growth at an estimated annual rate of 0.1 percent compared to Q4’s final rate of 2.6 percent.

Despite many beginning-of-the-year predictions about spring growth in the housing market falling flat, and despite a still chugging economy that changes its mind quarter-to-quarter, economists at the National Association of Realtors and other industry groups expect an uptick in the economy and housing market through next year.

According to numbers put out by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Wednesday, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 0.1 percent in Q1, a plunge from the final 2.6 percent growth rate reported for Q4 2013. The sudden slowdown reflects in part the toll this year’s winter season took on economic expansion, though not all changes were weather-related.

A weaker-than-expected first quarter has researchers at Fannie Mae amending their forecast for growth in 2014, but they still project acceleration as the year progresses. In its Economic and Housing Outlook for April, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group notes economic activity slowed in Q1 even more than was forecast, partly due to a sharp decline in inventory investment as consumer spending waned.

According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, the one-two punch of harsh winter weather in the East and a nagging drought in the West (namely California) stalled industries from real estate to factory production, putting a tight chokehold on the national economy.

In its “advance” estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) put growth at an estimated annual rate of 3.2 percent. For all of 2013, the bureau estimates real GDP increased 1.9 percent compared to a gain of 2.8 percent in 2012.