Tag Archives: Home Prices

Fitch Ratings released a report projecting another 7.8 percent drop in U.S. home prices before the market reaches sustainability, according to the rating agency's fourth quarter sustainable home price (SHP) report. This is a decrease from last quarter's prediction of a 9.1 percent drop. As long as economic growth is steady and inflation runs close to 3 percent annually, Fitch believes home prices will finally hit bottom in late 2013, and then move towards a slow recovery.

While the U.S. housing market appears to be on the road to recovery, it will be a rather patchy one, with some regions seeing home prices rise as high as 5 percent and others falling flat, according to a report released from the Demand Institute, which is jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. According to the report, three variables will indicate the speed of recovery for individual states: state-level unemployment rates, the proportion of foreclosure inventory relative to total inventory, and the extent of recent price declines.

According to numbers released by DataQuick, last month's home sales numbers in Southern California experienced a modest climb from last year. Median home sales prices in Southland rose year-over-year in April for the first time in 16 months. The median price paid for a home in Southland was $290,000 this year, up from $280,000 in March 2012 and April 2011. This increase is attributed to gains in the region's coastal counties, where home sales made up 71.5 percent of the area's total, an increase from last year's 68 percent. Also cited as cause for this year's higher numbers is the fact that foreclosed and discounted properties made up a smaller portion of sales.

The housing recovery will come in two phases. First, home prices will rise by just under 1 percent in the second half of 2012. In 2013, prices will rise by 1.5 percent, then go up another 2.5 percent in 2014. For the second phase, home prices will increase 3 to 3.5 percent between 2015 and 2017. These are the predictions from a report released by the Demand Institute, which is jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. The report, titled The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, stated investors who buy rental properties will lead phase one of the recovery, as opposed to buyers who purchase properties as their own residence.

Nationwide, the number of homes listed for sale has fallen 21 percent from a year ago, according to Pro Teck Valuation Services' May Home Value Forecast. Also, the forecast reported Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) is at 6.3 months, which is the lowest level since 2006. A strong market will have 0 to 5 months of inventory, a balanced market 6 to 10 months, and a soft market will have 11 to 15 months. From 2002 to 2005, when the housing market was booming, the national MRI was at or below 5 months.

As one of the hardest hit states during the real estate downturn, Florida often pops up in market reports as having a noticeably higher foreclosure rate than other states. Even so, the state is also becoming recognized for how quickly some of its markets are climbing out of the housing slump. For example, the National Association of Realtors recently cited data from Move Inc. showing the top 10 turnaround markets. Seven out of 10 were in Florida. Yet, a recent report from Florida Realtors stated that while Florida is in a revival period, distressed properties will remain a big factor for the next 10 years.

Interest rates continue to slide further down alongside the decline in home prices. In addition to these factors improving affordability for homeowners, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found the amount of income needed to qualify for a mortgage is actually well below the median income in most parts of the U.S. The national median family income was $61,000 in the first quarter. If a buyer wanted to purchase a home at the national median price, he or she would need an annual income of $34,700 if making a 5 percent downpayment. A 20 percent downpayment requires about $29,300.

For the first time since March 2010, data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) showed an increase in home prices, but still, the analytics company warned to embrace the positive news with some caution. Nationally, February 2012 seasonally-adjusted prices rose 0.2 percent, according to the LPS Home Price Index, which incorporated residential sales concluded during February. Not only is the increase a first in almost two years, but it's also the third increase in five years.

Analyzing the housing market through the perspective of 384 markets, Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes pointed to a slow, but steady pace toward recovery after dramatic price declines. According to the Fiserv indexes, in the fourth quarter of 2011, home prices in 70 of the 384 metro areas tracked were either unchanged or had increased compared to the same quarter a year ago. Also, 122 of the metros saw prices decline by less than 2 percent. On the other hand, nearly one-half of the metro areas, or 191, saw prices decrease by more than 2 percent.

When including distressed sales, home prices rose month-over-month by the same percentage point as they dropped year-over-year. CoreLogic reported Tuesday in its March Home Price Index (HPI) that compared to a year ago, prices declined 0.6 percentin March, while prices rose 0.6 percent compared to the month before in February. The monthly gain when including distressed sales is the first time since July 2011. Distressed sales include short sales and REO transactions.