Tag Archives: Home Prices

The U.S. economy ended 2011 in better standing than earlier in the year, according to the Federal Reserve's polling of key business contacts, economists, and market experts throughout its 12 regional districts. Reporting for the latest Beige Book publication, all 12 districts characterized economic growth as modest to moderate - and that's without the typical recovery model in which housing serves as a primary contributor to economic expansion. Across the board, Fed districts labeled residential real estate activity as ""sluggish.""

Marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, home prices fell 0.8 percent in October, matching levels last seen in 2002, according to Lender Processing Services' (LPS) Home Price Index released Wednesday. As of October, the national home price average was $200,000. The year-to-date decline in October was 2.7 percent. The LPS index noted that price declines were consistent across the country. In fact, prices fell in October in 403 out of the 409 metro areas LPS tracks.

The number of housing markets showing measurable improvement nearly doubled in January, with the addition of 40 new metros to the Improving Markets Index put out by First American and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The index tracks housing markets that are showing signs of improving economic health based on three independent datasets - employment growth from the Labor Department, home price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permits from the Census Bureau.

CoreLogic released its November home price report Monday, showing prices nationally fell 1.4 percent month-over-month and 4.3 percent year-over-year. November marks the fourth consecutive month CoreLogic's index has returned negative results, with the downward pressure coming from distressed REO and short sale transactions. When you exclude these distressed deals from the dataset, the year-over-year decline is just 0.6 percent. In fact, CoreLogic says the non-distressed market is expected to be down ""very modestly"" at year-end.

While year-over-year home price measurements notched down in 2011, prices are expected to see a slight uptick in 2012, according to Clear Capital. Should the valuation company's predictions ring true, it would be the first time since 2006 that the change in annual home prices has landed in positive territory. Data released by Clear Capital Monday shows year-over-year, national home prices dropped 2.1 percent in 2011. For 2012, the company projects a slight gain of 0.2 percent.

At a national level, the housing market is on the mend, but recovery will be slow this year with little overall change, according to the latest forecast from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The good news is that many markets are no longer expected to be radically declining, but Veros reiterates earlier predictions that this recovery will be ""a lengthy and gradual one."" Throughout 2012, the company expects the strongest markets to experience a 4 percent price increase and the weakest markets to experience 5 to 6 percent declines.

The Federal Reserve is throwing its support behind a large-scale REO-to-rental program to address the oversupply of vacant homes and prevent property values from falling further. The Fed notes that in contrast to the market for owner-occupied homes, rental housing is strengthening. Officials say a government-facilitated program has the potential to help the housing market and improve loss recoveries. They've identified specific markets with large concentrations of vacant REOs, where bulk sales to investors make sense.

Data released last week by Standard & Poor's indicates the fourth quarter of 2011 started with broad-based declines in home prices. The 20-city composite of S&P's closely watched Case-Shiller index was down 1.2 percent in October versus September. Home prices dropped in 19 of the 20 cities covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index. Phoenix was the only metro to see a month-over-month increase. Looking at the year-over-year comparisons, S&P says home prices are down more than 3 percent.

Home prices are expected to post a decline of 1.57 percent for the fourth quarter of 2011, after falling 0.4 percent through September, according to more than 100 economists and housing experts surveyed by Zillow. Prices are forecast to decline until the market's bottom is reached in late 2012 or early 2013. After 2013, panelists expect a steady annual appreciation rate of roughly 3 percent through 2016, which is slightly below appreciation rates experienced during the pre-bubble years.

The year 2011 is ending on a high note as economists anticipate some positive movement in the housing market. Prices appear to be reaching their trough, visible supply is on the decline, and banks are beginning just slightly to loosen lending standards, according to a fourth-quarter report from Capital Economics. However, the research firm warns these positive signs do not point to an immediate recovery, particularly with housing undervalued by the most it's been since at least 1975.