Tag Archives: Moody’s

Two industry reports point to positive trends in the commercial property sector that experts are attributing to improved credit conditions. Moody's tracked a 4.3 percent increase in commercial property prices during September, marking the first rise in the company's index since May. Real Capital reports the volume of commercial real estate deals grew 5.9 percent from September to October, and the company is predicting an even stronger fourth quarter.

Reports from three different agencies paint distinct pictures of the rate at which loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are going bad. Two tracked declines in the CMBS delinquency rate for during October - one says it's the first drop in over a year, the other says it's the first in nearly three years - and the third claims delinquencies are still rising on commercial mortgages. Hotels and multifamily complexes claim the highest delinquency rate among property types in all three reports.

The nation's homeownership rate held steady at 66.9 percent during the third quarter. With foreclosures still mounting, bank repossessions at an all-time high, and many consumers abandoning the idea of the ""American Dream,"" homeownership is at its lowest mark since the end of 1999. Renting is not only gaining ground as the most practical means of housing for a larger number of consumers, but some say it could be the answer to keeping millions of struggling borrowers in their homes and stabilizing foreclosure-ridden communities.

Hearing declarations that recovery has taken hold in the commercial real estate sector, with property values and fundamentals on the upswing? Not just yet. Commercial real estate prices have slipped again and are now the lowest they've been since the beginning of the market downturn, according to new data released Tuesday by Moody's Investors Service. In August, the agency's property price index recorded a 3.3 percent drop, as prices fell below the previous low hit in October 2009.

The nation's poor employment picture has become one of the biggest impediments to a perceptible recovery in the mortgage markets - both for residential and commercial real estate. Job loss is now the primary trigger of default among struggling homeowners, and two separate research reports have uncovered a clear correlation between state-specific delinquency rates for commercial mortgages and unemployment levels. Nevada and Michigan rank among the highest for both, according to Fitch and Moody's.

Evidence of major servicers mishandling foreclosure paperwork has cast a cloud of doubt over the entire industry and servicing procedures across the board. Consumer advocacy groups and a number of state attorneys general have demanded a nationwide moratorium on foreclosures. But two senior White House officials have indicated that the Obama administration will not support an all-out foreclosure freeze. So far, five companies have announced voluntary foreclosure suspensions because of potential deficiencies in the legal paperwork.

The foreclosure paperwork gaffe at GMAC Mortgage has garnered heavy attention from the highest legal counsels in states across the country, and at least one attorney general is pressing charges. In a lawsuit filed Wednesday against GMAC Mortgage and Ally Financial, Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray accuses the loan servicer and its agents of filing fraudulent affidavits in an attempt to mislead Ohio's courts. He is seeking a preliminary foreclosure injunction, $25,000 for every violation, and consumer restitution.

Last week, GMAC Mortgage called for a halt on foreclosures and REO sales in 23 states that may have been impacted by an internal procedural error. The incident could give cause for homeowners to file lawsuits against the lender, bondholders could be impacted, and the problem could reach beyond just GMAC since it also services mortgages for other firms, including the GSEs. A number of analysts have since weighed in on GMAC's foreclosure snafu. Attorneys general in several states are also launching their own investigations.

Legislation to stabilize the foreclosure crisis through the federal government's conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives Tuesday. The Housing Opportunity and Mortgage Equity (HOME) Act would require Fannie and Freddie to allow borrowers to refinance their mortgages by locking in today's record-low interest rates for longer fixed-term loans. The legislation would affect up to 30 million mortgages held or backed by the two GSEs.

The analysts at Moody's are downbeat in their outlook for both the U.S. economy and the housing market. They warn that the there's a stronger chance the country will slide back into a recession, and they are forecasting a longer and deeper housing correction. Because of weak housing demand, soft job creation, and the slow speed at which the industry is working through distressed mortgages, Moody's says recovery is already back-sliding into a double-dip. The agency expects house prices to fall until the third quarter of next year.