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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Personal Income, Spending Jump in February

Personal income rose a solid $143.2 billion or 1.1 percent in February, dwarfing expectations, and spending jumped $77.2 billion, or 0.7 percent, the, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. The data suggest the personal spending component of Gross Domestic Product remained strong in the first quarter. That income grew faster than spending was a boost to personal savings, which increased to $310.9 billion in February from $262.5 billion in January, up from 2.2 percent of disposable (essentially after-tax) income to 2.6 percent.

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Jobless Claims in Surprise Jump

First-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped 16,000 to 357,000 for the week ended March 23, the strongest jump since mid-February, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Meanwhile the number of continuing claims for the week ended March 16, reported on a one-week lag, fell 27,000 to 3,050,000, the lowest level since June 2008.

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Q4 GDP Revised Up to 0.4%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The report, coming just three days before the end of the first quarter, was an improvement over the first two GDP reports that showed the economy contracted by 0.1 percent then improved by 0.1 percent. At 0.4 percent, the annualized fourth-quarter growth rate was the weakest since Q1 2011, when the economy grew at 0.1 percent. While the revised numbers are hardly anything to get excited about, they could give the economy a running start as it heads into the second quarter.

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NAR: Inventory Shortage Brings Down Pending Home Sales in Janaury

The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 0.4 percent to 104.8 in January, the third month-over-month decline in the last four months, the association reported. Economists had expected a 0.7 percent drop to 105.2 from January's originally reported 105.9 The January index reading was revised to 105.2. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the drop in the PHSI to weak inventory of existing homes for sale.

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New Home Sales in Steepest Drop in Two Years

New home sales fell 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 in February, the sharpest drop in two years, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Tuesday. At the same time, the months' supply of new homes for sale rose to the highest level since December 2011. The median price of a new home, according to the Census/HUD report, rose $7,200 in February after falling $20,500 in January. The median price is up 2.9 percent in the last year, the weakest year-over-year gain in eight months.

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Case-Shiller Indices Post Strongest Gain Since 2006

Home prices posted their strongest year-year gain in almost seven years in January according to the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indexes released Tuesday. Home prices rose year-year in all 20 of the cities in the Case-Shiller survey. Month-over-month, the 10-city index improved 0.2 percent in January, while the 20-city index was up 0.1 percent. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 7.3 percent, and the 20-city index rose 8.1 percent. Prices rose in nine cities in January over December while falling in eight.

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Commentary: Headlines and Bottom Lines

One of the most interesting results of poring through economic data reports is that the details often tell a different story than the headline. The recent report on retail sales is a case in point. While the vast majority of commentators were impressed with a strong 1.1 percent month-over-month increase in overall sales, those who scratched the surface were rewarded for their efforts by learning more than half of the month-over-month increase came from an increase in gasoline station sales as prices. In addition, coverage of the recent report on housing permits and starts was dominated by the increase in both permits and starts. A closer look at the permit-starts data revealed another important phenomenon: a shift from single-family to multifamily construction.

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Existing-Home Sales Up in February; Inventory Rises from Prior Month

Existing-home sales rose 0.8 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Economists had expected the sales pace to climb to 5.01 million from January's originally reported 4.92 million. January sales were revised up to 4.94 million. The inventory of homes for sale rose for the first time since last July, up 9.6 percent to 1,940,000. At the reported sales pace, that represents a 4.7-month supply of homes for sale, up from the 4.3-month supply reported for January.

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First-Time Jobless Claims Edge Up; Trend Stays Positive

First-time claims for unemployment insurance increased 2,000 to 336,000 for the week ending March 16--the first increase in a month--the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected claims to rise to 340,000. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 9 were revised up to 334,000 from the initially reported 332,000. The slight increase in first-time claims was driven largely by seasonal adjustment factors and as such masks the sharp improvement in the jobs market.

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FOMC Continues Interest Rate, Investment Policies

With an upbeat assessment of the economy, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged and to continue its program of purchasing agency mortgage backed securities and longer term Treasury securities ""to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.""

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