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Author Archives: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.

Q4 GDP Falls for First Time Since Recession Ended

Battered by storms and droughts, real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday. The decrease marks the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected a weak 1.0 percent growth compared with the 3.1 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. The GDP downturn does not automatically signal a return to recession, which is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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Homeownership Rate Slips in Q4

The nation's homeownership rate (seasonally adjusted) dipped to 65.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 65.5 percent in the third quarter, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday. At 65.4 percent--the same level as the first quarter--the homeownership rate is at its lowest level since the first quarter of 1997 when the rate was also 65.4 percent. The homeownership rate peaked at 69.2 percent in Q2 2004. The Census Bureau also reported the homeowner vacancy rate remained at 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

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Case-Shiller Indexes Show Sharp Annual Gain in November

Despite seeing a month-over-month drop, the 10- and 20-city Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes registered their strongest year-over-year improvement in two and a half years on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Standard & Poor's, which publishes the indexes, reported Tuesday. The 10-city index fell 0.2 percent, and the 20-city index dropped 0.1 percent from October to November. On an annual basis, however, the 10-city index was up 4.5 percent, and the 20-city index rose 5.5 percent.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Records Sharp Drop as Inventory Falls

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December, the sharpest month-month drop since April the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Monday. Economists had expected a smaller 0.3 percent decrease to 106.1 from November's originally reported 106.4. The November index was revised down to 106.3. NAR economist Lawrence Yun blamed a tight inventory for the weakening index. Yun also noted the lack of homes costing less than $100,000, especially in the West.

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Commentary: Don’t Raise the Bridge, Lower the Water

Two housing reports in the week just demonstrated, yet again, economists are not infallible. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales for December: 4.94 million against a consensus forecast of 5.1 million. Then on Friday, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly 369,000 new homes were sold in December compared with a consensus forecast of 388,000. There are several important housing related reports due out next week, but they will take a backseat to the report on fourth quarter GDP and Friday's report on the employment situation.

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New Home Sales in December Fall Sharply

New home sales fell 7.3 percent in December to an annual pace of 369,000, the sharpest monthly drop in almost two years, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the report to show a sales rose to 388,000. The monthly drop in sales was the largest since February 2011, when sales fell 11.4 percent. Nonetheless, December 2012 sales were up 8.8 percent over December 2011.

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First-Time Jobless Claims Fall Again to 5-Year Low

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to another five-year low for the week ending January 19, dropping 5,000 to 330,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected claims to increase to 360,000 from the prior week. The previous week's report was unchanged at 365,000, which had been the lowest level since January 2008.

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Existing-Home Sales Dip in December; Inventory Falls to 11-Year Low

Existing-home sales fell 1.0 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million, and November sales were revised downward, slipping below 5 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Economists had expected the sales pace to improve to 5.1 million. The supply of existing homes for sale fell in December to 1.82 million, the lowest level since January 2001. At the current sales pace, the homes available for sale represent a 4.4 month supply.

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Commentary: Let Them Eat…Nothing

The disagreement over the nation's borrowing limit took a back seat to gun control and perhaps lost some urgency when House Republicans floated the idea of a temporary extension, which would do what Washington seems to be famous for--kicking the can down the road. But, the controversy and its impact on the nation's financial credibility demands a solution that will last for more than just a few months. Just a week after unveiling new rules for mortgage originations, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau stepped up its game by turning to the other end of the mortgage business, collecting on loans.

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Unemployment Rates Fall in 22 States in December

Unemployment rates fell in 22 states in December but rose in 16, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday in its monthly Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) release. In November, unemployment rates dropped in 45 states. According to the LAUS report, the West had the highest regional unemployment rate--8.6 percent, down from 8.7 percent in November and 9.8 percent in December 2011. The Midwest registered the lowest unemployment rate with 7.1 percent, unchanged from November and down from 7.9 percent in December 2011.

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