Market Studies

The risk for property valuation fraud rose nearly 8 percent for this fourth quarter, according to the Mortgage Fraud Risk Report released by Interthinkx. This rise caused certain regions of the New York Tri-State region to move into the high risk category. The national mortgage fraud risk index also increased by 1.4 percent compared to the last quarter and 3.6 percent since a year ago. With an index value of 247, Arizona overtook Nevada as the riskiest state. Nevada, now at number two, ranked first in this category since the first quarter of 2010.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still at an all-time low of 3.87 percent and it's been there since the first week of February, according to the weekly market survey published by Freddie Mac. The 30-year average has managed to remain below 4 percent for the past 11 weeks, and below 5 percent for the past 52 weeks, dating back to February 17, 2011. The 15-year rate was also unchanged in the GSE's study, while the 5-year adjustable rate posted a slight decline and the 1-year adjustable rate increased.

A recent Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report revealed that overall, delinquencies and foreclosures are on a decline, and when gauging where the U.S. housing market stands in terms of recovery, Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist, says we are about halfway to the pre-recession days. Overall, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties decreased to 7.58 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to 7.99 percent in the third.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 13,000 for the week ended February 11 to 348,000, hitting their lowest level since March 2008, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. Continuing claims, reported on a one-week lag, fell as well, dropping 100,000 to 3,426,000. That's the lowest reading for continuing claims since August 2008. While the absolute numbers themselves are encouraging, the trend in the filings is more significant.

Foreclosure activity increased 3 percent in January, but is still down 10 percent compared to a year earlier, according to data released by RealtyTrac Thursday. Foreclosure activity includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. Nationwide, one in every 624 housing units had a foreclosure filing last month. The number of properties taken back as REO in January totaled 66,542, with the biggest year-over-year increases in repossessions recorded in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Indiana.

Overall, the addition of 683,000 new jobs and the best credit picture in more than 15 years helped improve the financial health for the average U.S. household, but these gains were offset somewhat by a decline in net worth and tight household budgets, according to the Q4 2011 report from CredAbility. A score below 70 indicates financial distress, with U.S. households scoring 67.6 on the 100-point scale for this quarter, a smidge higher than the previous quarter, which was at 66.7.

Of the myriad of public reports about the mortgage industry, the quarterly statistics from Freddie Mac on refinance activity offer unique insights not only into the level of refinance lending but what that activity tells us about the housing sector. If you know how to read them, the reports can offer strategic clues for the savvy lender. Loans refinanced into larger loans, for example, speak to a need to supplement lagging incomes, while refinancing into smaller loans allows homeowners to free up cash for consumption.

The national mortgage delinquency rate rose during the fourth quarter of 2011, TransUnion reported Tuesday, marking only the second time since the end of 2009 the credit bureau has recorded an increase in past due mortgage payments. The first was during the third quarter of 2011, with the succession signaling what could be a troubling trend in the making. TransUnion calculates delinquencies as borrowers 60 or more days behind on payments but not in foreclosure. The rate increased from 5.88 percent in the third quarter to 6.01 percent in the fourth.

Foreclosure sales on the West Coast started strong for the year 2012, with Washington as the exception, according to ForeclosureRadar. Arizona, California, Nevada, and Oregon are the other states included in the report - all of which saw increases in foreclosure sales to investors. Nevada experienced the largest month-over-month increase in foreclosure sales, up nearly 60 percent. California also saw a substantial increase at nearly 15 percent and underwent the most activity, with investors purchasing 3,964 properties for $766.2 million, according to ForeclosureRadar.

Zillow forecasts home values will be on the decline through December 2012, but the decrease will be smaller than in 2011. Home values in the U.S. fell in the fourth quarter, with the Zillow Home Value Index sinking 1.1 percent after a less significant decline for the two previous quarters. Zillow's report also shows that the rate of homes foreclosed on increased slightly to 8.2 out of every 10,000 in December, compared to 8 out of every 10,000 homes in November.