Market Studies

Treasury has released a new progress report on its Making Home Affordable initiative, covering all the ""H"" acronyms. Since the program started in April 2009, 857,000 homeowners have received permanent loan restructurings under HAMP, and 894,000 have refinanced their mortgages through HARP. HAFA transactions tally just under 19,000. Officials say they continue to see a fall in mortgage defaults due in part to foreclosure prevention programs reaching more borrowers upstream in the process, but there's ""much more work to do.""

Mortgage interest rates dropped sharply this week as investors rushed to U.S. Treasury bonds amid concerns over the European debt crisis. Data released by Freddie Mac Thursday puts the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 4.00 percent for the week ending November 3rd. That marks its second lowest reading since hitting an all-time low of 3.94 percent in early October. The 30-year rate fell 10 basis points from 4.10 percent last week. Last year at this time, it was averaging 4.24 percent.

Those who know someone who has defaulted on a mortgage are more likely to have a pessimistic outlook on the economy, according to Fannie Mae's third quarter National Housing Survey. However, knowing a defaulter does not seem to cloud their view of homeownership. Ninety-two percent of owners who know someone who defaulted on a mortgage and 89 percent of owners who do not know a defaulter agree that owning a home makes more sense than renting.

After falling to a 13-year low during the second quarter, the U.S. homeownership rate posted a highly unexpected rise in the third quarter. Data released by the Census Bureau Wednesday puts the nation's homeownership rate at 66.3 percent. That's up from 65.9 percent at mid-year. With foreclosures forcing homeowners out of their homes and buyers waiting on the sidelines as home values declined, the rate has been heading south for quite some time. In fact, the third-quarter rise is the first in two years.

Mortgages backing homes that were foreclosed on in September had been delinquent for an average of 624 days, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS). That's up from 484 days in September of last year. LPS says almost 40 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years. Modification volumes have been falling steadily since last year, but on the plus side, LPS says close to 90 percent of the mods completed over that time have reduced borrowers' payments, and as a result, redefault rates have dropped significantly.

The administration unveiled its revamped Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) last week to allow borrowers who owe significantly more than their home is worth take out new loans with lower interest rates. CoreLogic says the impact will be targeted to those markets and local economies that have suffered the most from the housing collapse. The company believes HARP 2.0 will be positive for the GSEs and the origination market, negative for bondholders, and neutral for housing itself because distressed borrowers and shadow inventory are left out of the equation.

Short sales are growing throughout the nation as distressed homeowners and servicers continue to seek alternatives to foreclosure and home buyers increasingly opt for the significant discounts that come with short sales. With 9,145 completed short sales, the Los Angeles area had more short sale transactions than any other metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the second quarter of this year, according to a recent blog post from RealtyTrac. These short sales came with an average discount of 32 percent and at an average price of $350,237.

Long-term, fixed-rate mortgages are often seen as a safe loan product, but one Federal Reserve economist says adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are not as risky as some perceive them to be and did not play a major role in the recent housing crisis. To those who believe payment shocks caused by ARMs were a major player in the foreclosure crisis, Paul Willen, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, says, the ""data refute that theory."" He says those with ARMs were almost as likely to have seen a payment reduction as a payment increase.

Federally funded mortgage relief programs continue to struggle to reach homeowners, according to the Special Inspector General of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP). A new report from the watchdog agency says only $2.5 billion of the $45.6 billion in TARP funds earmarked for housing programs has been spent. Regarding the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), the agency estimates that as many as 600,000 homeowners who are eligible will not receive a permanent mod before the program expires next fall.

More than 42 percent of prospective home buyers believe home values increase by about 7 percent each year, according to a recent survey by Zillow. This estimation is out of line for the current economic times and high even for years prior to the housing crisis. In a normal market, home values tend to increase by only 2 percent to 5 percent per year, according to Zillow. While home buyers revealed a lack of understanding of home values, respondents answered about 65 percent of questions correctly.