Market Studies

The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index for August was 88.6, which is on par with last year's pending home sales average for the year, according to NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun. Yun says the index has been moving within a narrow range for the past several months. On a monthly basis, pending home sales fell 1.2 percent in August, although existing home sales in August rose 7.7 percent on a monthly basis and 18.6 percent year-over-year.

Data released Thursday by a federal banking regulator provides a snapshot of mortgage performance over the second quarter of this year. Both early stage and serious delinquencies increased slightly compared to the previous three-month period, as did completed foreclosures, while new modification actions fell nearly 20 percent. Perhaps the most troubling result in the report is post-modification performance. Of loans modified since the beginning of 2008, nearly half have since gone delinquent.

Fixed mortgage rates fell to all-time record lows this week following the Federal Reserve's announcement of ""Operation Twist."" Data released by Freddie Mac Thursday puts the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.01 percent for the week ending September 29, and the 15-year fixed-rate at 3.28 percent. Interest rates for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), however, were virtually unchanged. The 5-year ARM averaged 3.02 percent and the 1-year ARM came in at 2.83 percent.

The delinquency rate on loans held in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) fell 23 basis points in August to 9.01 percent, according to Moody's Investors Service. Even with a slip in the numbers, Moody's notes that August was the eighth consecutive month that delinquencies have been above the 9 percent mark. The resolutions of delinquent loans continued to exceed new delinquencies last month, with $4.1 billion in resolutions versus $2.6 billion in newly delinquent CMBS loans.

The amount of suspicious activity reports related to mortgage fraud filed in the second quarter of this year is 88 percent greater than the amount filed in the second quarter of 2010. Financial institutions sent in nearly 30,000 reports of suspected mortgage fraud over the April-to-June period this year, according to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. More than three-fourths involved suspicious activity that occurred before 2008, but officials say they're seeing evidence of ongoing fraud.

Servicers completed about 56,000 proprietary permanent loan modifications in the month of August - similar to their July efforts. Most of these modifications included reduced principal and interest payments and fixed interest rates for five years or more, according to HOPE NOW data released Wednesday. While proprietary loan modifications remained level, foreclosure starts increased 18 percent, rising from 185,000 in July to 218,000 in August.

Even while interest rates continue to post record and near-record lows and affordability is relatively high, many consumers choose to rent rather than purchase homes. According to Freddie Mac's chief economist Frank Nothaft, financial worries among consumers are likely holding back home sales, which remain lackluster despite the most affordable home-buying market in decades. Nothaft says a boost in job and income growth would help instill confidence in consumers and in turn, stimulate the housing market.

The industry's shadows are shrinking, according to CoreLogic. Based on the analytics firm's calculations, the residential shadow inventory of unlisted REOs and soon-to-be REOs stood at 1.6 million units as of July 2011. CoreLogic says that tally represents a supply of five months and is down from 1.7 million units in April and 1.9 million units in July of 2010. The company says the decline is driven by a pace of new delinquencies that is slower than the disposition pace of distressed assets.

Even with a seasonal uptick in the month of July, home prices are falling short of their levels a year earlier, according to data released Tuesday morning by Standard & Poor's. Both the 20-city and 10-city composite readings of the S&P/Case-Shiller index rose 0.9 percent between June and July, but were down 4.1 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, when compared to July 2010. Washington, D.C. and Detroit were the only metropolitan areas to buck the annual trend.

Processing delays have taken their toll on first-time homebuyer interest in short sales, according to the latest HousingPulse Tracking Survey released Monday. First-time homebuyers were a part of 39.7 percent of the short sale transactions completed in August. That's the lowest percentage for this buyer segment ever recorded by the survey. The study found that the average time-on-market for short sales is 16.6 weeks, with the majority of that time spent waiting for approval.