Supply Shortage to ‘Hold Strong in the Short Term’

The latest data indicates the housing shortage could linger for a while, but there might be hope on the horizon, according to the data analysts at HousingCanary, which provides residential real estate data and home valuations.

“Last spring, the real estate market was rocked as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns, but what ensued was a housing boom marked by residential home prices hitting all-time highs, record-low mortgage rates, and extremely limited inventory coupled with unwavering demand from buyers," Jeremy Sicklick, Co-founder and CEO of HouseCanary said. "One year later, we are finally starting to see some positive developments on the supply side for the first time since the pandemic began. New listings are up 19.1% year-over-year, however, the number of listings under contract continues to outpace the increase in new listings, which leads us to believe that the supply shortage will hold strong in the short-term.”

The report from HousingCanary showed that, since April 2020, there have been 3,045,485 net new listings placed on the market, which is an 8.8% increase versus the same period in 2019.

Broken down by home price, it looks like this:

• $0-$200,000: 20.6%
• $200k-$400,000: 42.9%
• $400k-$600,000: 18.8%
• $600k-$1 million: 11.6%
• More than $1 million: 6.1%

The following is the net percent change in new listing activity over the past year versus the same period in 2019, by home price, according to HousingCanary:

• $0-$200,000: (-18.2%)
• $200,000-$400,000: +3.4%)
• $400,000-$600,000: +30.8%
• $600,000-$million: +54.9%
• More than $1 million: +81.4%

HousingCanary found that due to the intensifying inventory lack, listed properties in the past year spent about half the time on the market as they did the year of the previous study, for April 2019-2020.

While the number of new listings is up overall 19.1% year-over-year, that remains outpaced by contract volumes, and the following is what that looks like, by home price, in the past year, according to the report, which can be downloaded in full at housingcanary.com:

In the past 52 weeks, 3,460,246 properties have gone into contract, representing a 14.1% increase relative to the same period in 2019, says HousingCanary.

By home price, the percentage of total contract volume since April 2020:

• $0-$200,000: 20.9%
• $200,000-$400,000: 43.1%
• $400,000-$600,000: 18.7%
• $600,000-$1 million: 11.4%
• Greater than $1 million: 5.8%

The following is the percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2019, by price:

• $0-$200,000: (-13.3%)
• $200,000-$400,000: +9.6%
• $400,000-$600,000: +36.8%
• $600,000-$1 million: +59.4%
• And, over $1 million: +80.6%

Methodology notes: As a nationwide real estate broker, HouseCanary reports that its broad multiple listing service participation allows its analysts to evaluate listing data and aggregate the number of new listings as well as the number of new listings going into contract for all single-family detached homes observed in its proprietary database. Using this data, HouseCanary continues to track listing volume, new listings, and median list price for 41 states and 50 individual metro areas.