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NYC, Miami Areas Most At-Risk From Hurricanes and Storm Surges

CoreLogic’s 2022 Hurricane Report—which analyzes hurricane and storm surge and wind risk exposure for single-family residences (SFRs) and multifamily residences (MFRs) along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts—has found that nearly 7.8 million homes with more than $2.3 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) are at risk of hurricane-related damages.

CoreLogic’s analysis also revealed that nearly 33 million homes with approximately $10.5 trillion in combined RCV are at risk of hurricane-force wind damages.

CoreLogic evaluated the storm surge and hurricane wind risk levels for both SFRs and MFRs from Texas to Maine for the 2022 hurricane season. The data includes the total estimated RCV, which is calculated using the combined cost of construction materials, building equipment and labor, and assumes total 100% destruction of the property.

And homeowners along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts should be wary of these estimates as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an above-normal 2022 hurricane season with as many as 21 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes, three-to-six of which could be categorized as “Major Hurricanes.”

“This hurricane season could be particularly severe for the U.S. Gulf Coast due to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an ongoing La Niña, and a stronger than average loop current in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Dr. Daniel Betten, Chief Meteorologist at CoreLogic. “Although La Niña events typically occur once every three years, this fall will likely be the fifth La Niña event over the last seven years.”

Further supporting Dr. Betten’s comments, the NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report found that the average global temperature in May was 1.46 degrees F above the 20th-century average, ranking as the ninth-warmest May on record—but the coolest May since 2013. May 2022 marked the 46th-consecutive May, and the 449th-consecutive month, with average temperatures above the 20th-century average.

The New York City metro area has the greatest risk, with nearly 900,000 SFR and MFR homes with nearly $433 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage, and more than four million SFR and MFR homes with more than $2.2 trillion in RCV at risk of wind damage. New York City was followed by the Miami metro area, with nearly 770,000 SFR and MFR homes with nearly $193 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage and more than two million SFR and MFR homes with more than $521 billion in RCV at risk of wind damage.

At a state level, Florida, Louisiana, and New York have the greatest number of SFR and MFR homes at risk of storm surge damage with more than three million; nearly 911,000; and more than 600,000 homes at risk, respectively. Texas tops the list for hurricane wind risk with more than 8.8 million homes at risk.

A recent analysis from First Street Foundation in its Wildfire Model found that nationwide, there are nearly 20 million properties that face "Moderate" risk of wildfire (up to a 6% chance of experiencing a wildfire over 30 years). First Street Foundation’s 5th National Risk Assessment: Fueling the Flames is a report commissioned by First Street, a non-profit 501(c)(3) research and technology group working to define America's growing climate risk.

About Author: Eric C. Peck

Eric C. Peck has 20-plus years’ experience covering the mortgage industry, he most recently served as Editor-in-Chief for The Mortgage Press and National Mortgage Professional Magazine. Peck graduated from the New York Institute of Technology where he received his B.A. in Communication Arts/Media. After graduating, he began his professional career with Videography Magazine before landing in the mortgage space. Peck has edited three published books and has served as Copy Editor for Entrepreneur.com.
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