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Relief in Sight for a Housing Market Short on Supply

HouseCanary has released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between June 2020 and June 2021, which found that since June 2020, there have been 3,142,711 net new listings placed on the market, a 12% increase over the same period in 2019.

“After a prolonged period of severe housing shortage, we are beginning to see early signs that inventory levels may finally be stabilizing,” Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and CEO of HouseCanary. “In June, we observed a shrinking gap between net new listings and the number of listings under contract and if this trend progresses, we expect to see supply constraints start to loosen in late Q3 or early Q4. In the near-term, however, it is important to recognize that tight supply continues to dominate market dynamics, causing historically high prices across much of the country.”

The study found that the percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price:

  • $0-$200k: 19.3%
  • $200k-$400k: 42.0%
  • $400k-$600k: 19.7%
  • $600k-$1mm: 12.6%
  • >$1mm: 6.4%

The percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2019, broken down by home price:

  • $0-$200k: (-18.1%)
  • $200k-$400k: +4.3%
  • $400k-$600k: +37.6%
  • $600k-$1mm: +62.5%
  • >$1mm: +82.8%

Monthly new listing volume for single-family detached homes was down 2% year-over-year compared to June 2020. In June, there were 336,834 net new single-family detached listings on the market, a 3.3% decrease year-over-year. The percent change in net new listings activity for single-family detached homes year-over-year, broken down by home price is as follows:

  • $0-$200k: (-18.3%)
  • $200k-$400k: (-11.9%)
  • $400k-$600k: +12.5%
  • $600k-$1mm: +26.8%
  • >$1mm: +13.7%

Over the last year, 3,448,816 properties went into contract, a 9.3% increase relative to the same period in 2019. The percentage of total contract volume since June 2020, broken down by home price:

  • $0-$200k: 19.5%
  • $200k-$400k: 42.3%
  • $400k-$600k: 19.5%
  • $600k-$1mm: 12.3%
  • >$1mm: 6.4%

According to HouseCanary, the percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks, versus the same period in 2019, broken down by home price is as follows:

  • $0-$200k: (-20.5%)
  • $200k-$400k: +2.7%
  • $400k-$600k: +33.6%
  • $600k-$1mm: +60.2%
  • >$1mm: +82.6%

In terms of monthly contract volume for single-family detached homes, for the month of June, there were 367,268 listings that went under contract nationwide, a 7.8% decrease year-over-year. Also for the month of June, the percent change in contract volume compared to June 2020, broken down by home price is as follows:

  • $0-$200k: (-23.5%)
  • $200k-$400k: (-14.5%)
  • $400k-$600k: +4.8%
  • $600k-$1mm: +19.1%
  • >$1mm: +18.6%

Median listing price activity for single-family detached homes for the week ending July 9, 2021, was $388,939, a 12.9% increase year-over-year. Also for the week ending July 9, 2021, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $396,115, a 24.6% increase year-over-year.

The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was down 0.8% month-over-month in June, and the median price of closed listings increased by 1.9% month-over-month.

About Author: Eric C. Peck

Eric C. Peck has 20-plus years’ experience covering the mortgage industry, he most recently served as Editor-in-Chief for The Mortgage Press and National Mortgage Professional Magazine. Peck graduated from the New York Institute of Technology where he received his B.A. in Communication Arts/Media. After graduating, he began his professional career with Videography Magazine before landing in the mortgage space. Peck has edited three published books and has served as Copy Editor for Entrepreneur.com.
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