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Experts Talk Housing Outlook After the Election

White House BHMore than 100 U.S. economists, real estate experts and academics say they expect home values to grow steadily in the 3 percent to 4 percent range over the next few years, but that those expectations could change depending on who is elected president come November, according to a report from Zillow [1].

The Q2 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey asked a panel of 107 experts nationwide to give their expectations for home value growth through 2020, as well as how the election of various presidential candidates might impact their view. The report states that among those panelists expressing an opinion, 45 percent said a Donald Trump presidency would impact their expectations for future home value growth either very negatively or somewhat negatively. This is compared to 16 percent who said their expectations would be impacted somewhat or very positively.

“The overwhelming majority stated that if Secretary Clinton were to become president, very little would actually change in the panelists outlook and forecast for the general economy, the housing market and even housing finance reform,” says Zillow Chief Economist, Svenja Gudell. “In contrast, if Mr. Trump were to become president, the panelists forecast for the economy, the housing market, and housing finance reform were all impacted negatively.”

In contrast, Zillow states that the possible election of Hillary Clinton is reported to show a more positive impact on panelists’ expectations for home value growth going forward with 33 percent with an opinion showing the election of Hillary Clinton would have a somewhat or very positive effect on their home value forecast. This is compared to a reported 16 percent saying her election would have a somewhat or very negative impact.

Zillow also notes that panelists were then asked to evaluate their expectations for the future of housing finance reform and their overall economic outlook over the next few years depending on which of the presidential candidates were to be elected. The report states that a majority of those with an opinion, 59 percent, stated that their overall economic outlook would be very or somewhat negatively impacted if Trump were to win the presidency.

Additionally, the report stated on the economy overall, 30 percent said if Clinton were to be elected, it would somewhat or very positively influence their overall economic outlook, while 29 percent said their view would be somewhat or very negatively swayed.