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Seasonality Plays into Increase in Foreclosure Starts


Foreclosure Four BHThe Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. recently reported the “first look [1]” at the August 2016 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

Total U.S. foreclosure starts numbered 68,800 for the month of August with a 12.23 percent increase from July. Although August 2016 saw a larger increase month over month, the year over year change was shown to be a 9.71 percent decrease.

“While it may seem like a large increase, the 12 percent rise in foreclosure starts in August is actually more a product of just how low starts were in July, which actually saw the second lowest volume of foreclosure starts in over 10 years,” says Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske. “It’s important to keep this in perspective - despite the monthly rise, August is still the fifth lowest month for starts in 10 years. There is also some seasonality in play here, as 90-day defaults tend to rise through the summer months, but overall default and foreclosure start activity continue to trend in the right direction.”

The report states that inventory of loans in foreclosure has now declined for 19 consecutive months and in 51 of the past 52 months with total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) currently sitting at 4.24 percent. This is a decrease of 6.04 percent from the previous month as well as a 11.41 percent increase from the past year.

Additionally, total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate sat at 1.04 percent in August with a decreased month over month change of 4.25 percent and decrease of 29.91 from August of 2015. In contrast, foreclosure sales were a reported 2.15 percent. This was an 8.15 percent increase from the month prior and a 20.26 percent increase from the year before.

The number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure was 2,151,000. This was 135,000 properties less than July and 262,000 less from August of last year. Likewise, the number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure was 669,000 for August 2016 which was a decrease of 26,000 properties from July and 156,000 properties from the year prior.

For the number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory, August saw a number of 527,000 properties compared to 23,000 less properties in July and 221,000 properties is August of 2015.

Finally, the report states that the number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure sat at 2,678,000. This was a decrease of 158,000 properties in July and 483,000 properties in August of 2015.