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The Week Ahead: Measuring Housing Market Health

On Monday, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) will release its latest quarterly National Housing Market Indicators (NHMI) data, for Q2 2018.

According to the last NHMI release from Q1, 6.35 million home sales transactions were reported at the end of the first quarter, up 3.5 percent from the same period a year ago. However, AEI reported a slowing down in the growth rate, contributed largely by a lack of housing supply. “Although there continues to be very strong demand, the supply doesn’t seem to be expanding in sufficient amount to drive the annualized home sales more rapidly,” said Edward Pinto, Co-Director, Center of Housing Market and Finance at AEI, while presenting the findings of the NHMI.

The current increase in sales marked the 14th consecutive quarter of such increases despite a 7.3 percent year-over-year jump in FHFA’s national house price index in Q12018, the NHMI data indicated.

Credit easing also indicates a higher mortgage risk, with the study’s National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) increasing from already elevated levels a year ago. The index which has now risen at more than 2 percent year-over-year for FHA loans was slightly higher for first-time buyers than for repeat buyers.

“For 2018 we expect continued easing for first-time buyers and FHA, helping fuel accelerating house price growth for entry-level homes,” Pinto said. “Entry-level homes will be less affordable and first-time buyers will be faced with a higher risk of default.”

Here's what else is happening in The Week Ahead:

  • Construction Spending Report, Monday, 10 a.m. ET
  • Jerome Powell Address at the National Association of Business Economics Annual meeting, Tuesday, 12 p.m. ET
  • CoreLogic Home Price Insights Report, Tuesday, 9 a.m. ET
  • MBA  Mortgage Apps, Wednesday, 7 a.m. ET
  • Census Bureau Employment Situation, Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET

 

About Author: Seth Welborn

Seth Welborn is a contributing writer for DS News. He is a Harding University graduate with a degree in English and a minor in writing, and has studied abroad in Athens, Greece. An East Texas native, he also works part-time as a photographer.
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