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Fate of Swing States In 2017 Election May Come Down to Housing Market

American Flag House BHStates that are battlegrounds for Republican and Democratic control could potentially see their dominate political party reverse come 2017, according to Daren Blomquist, SVP for ATTOM Data Solutions.

Currently, homeowners in Republican-controlled districts are winning seven out of 11 battleground states including Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida, according to recent data from RealtyTrac [1]. Blomquist says that this trend is in part due to the suburban or rural nature of these states over all.

“There are definitely exceptions here, but the cities that are in these states are still very much struggling and not seeing the renaissance that some of the other markets have,” says Blomquist. “The other thing to notice about these battleground states is that unlike nationwide where the Democratic districts are out performing the Republican districts two to one, in many of these states it is a very close battle between the Democratic and Republican districts when it comes to housing returns.”

He notes that another hallmark of these states is that many of them were the epicenters of the housing crisis, meaning homeowners are still struggling to gain back the value that was lost during the housing market downturn.

“The Democratic districts tend to be more densely populated areas as well as coastal markets, and that's where we have seen the housing market recovery centered during this housing boom over the last four years,” says Blomquist. “This housing recovery has really been about a return to urban, walkable locations and those areas tend to be Democratic districts in nature.”

This trend of battleground states being Republican dominated could reverse though, says Blomquist. “I think you may actually see some of these swing states flip in a sense as that trend takes hold there. In places like Ohio and Michigan where Republicans are beating the Democratic districts only marginally, I would expect to see those areas flip especially as places like Detroit start to experience that renaissance that other cities are seeing across the country.”

While this reverse could change the orientation of these states, Blomquist notes that current trends seen nationwide for the housing market are expected to continue for the next four years.

“I think the trend toward more urban locations especially for the young buyers is going to continue into the next administration, says Blomquist. “It is fair to say, though, that having a Democratic president in place probably had some influence on the market trends but it's hard to quantify that, so there will probably be some influence depending on who wins the presidency. I think more importantly, though, is the trend toward going back to the cities and I foresee that continuing for the next four years.”