Pro Teck Valuation Services Home Value Forecast for September reports that six out of top 10 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) experienced a negative sales change, despite reflecting positive changes across all other market indicators. Not all trends experienced in these CBSAs are the entire picture of what is occurring in one small, more localized market compared to another in the same area.
To reach these rankings, the scaling system is purely objective and is based on directional trends. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series.
This month, Pro Teck ranks the top 10 CBSAs as follows:
- Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
- Olympia-Tumwater, WA
- Portland-South Portland, ME
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
- Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade, CA
- Wilmington, NC
- Boise City, ID
- Raleigh, NC
- Modesto, CA
Typically, the top ten is dominated by CBSAs from the west, but unlike most months seen over the past few years, this month four are from the East Coast. Pro Teck explains that this represents a broader recovery for the east that hasn’t been experienced until as of late. Despite the difference in locations for these top CBSAs, all ten are showing tight inventory, with over 30 percent reductions in active listings and all under four months of remaining inventory.
For example, Raleigh, North Carolina experienced a 7.03 percent decrease in sales and a 30.84 percent drop in active listings. Despite these declines, the average sale price increased 1.58 percent.
In contrast the bottom 10 CBSAs this month includes:
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
- Mobile, AL
- Syracuse, NY
- Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
- El Paso, TX
- Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
- Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
- Midland, TX
- Gary, IN
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
Pro Teck explains that while the trends reported for the top and bottom CBSAs are typically a good indicator of what is being experienced across the board, all real estate is local. Specifically, they cite that looking at the ZIP level is a better method of determining the full picture of trends experienced in a particular CBSA.
A good example of this is in the Syracuse, NY CBSA. The foreclosure ratio increased by 27.02 percent in September, but purely looking at the whole CBSA for an explanation as to why the drastic increase was experienced isn't enough.
Looking closer at the ZIP code 13080, Jordan, NY, Pro Teck explains that the impact of the housing crisis was swift, with foreclosures as a percentage of regular sales hitting 20 percent by Q1 in 2009, driving sales prices down. Looking at ZIP 13104, Manlius, NY, though the effects of the housing crisis, but the reaction took longer. While each ZIP was going through ups and downs, the overall CBSA has had prices stay relatively steady over the last eight years.