The overall delinquency rate [1] was 3.8% nationwide in September, down from 4.4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of September in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. Five states, CoreLogic notes, reported even larger decreases in their delinquency rates.
Year-over-year, the states that logged the largest decreases included: Mississippi (-1.1 percentage points), North Carolina (-1.1 percentage points), Louisiana (-1.0 percentage points), New Jersey (-1.0 percentage points) and South Carolina (-1.0 percentage points). CoreLogic notes that the decreased activity in the Carolinas may be due in part to a recovery from the elevated levels in 2018 in the wake of Hurricane Florence.
While overall delinquency fell, serious delinquency rates have begun to flatten out at low levels. The serious delinquency rate, defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure, was 1.3% in September 2019, down from 1.5% in September 2018. Likewise, the share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due—considered early-stage delinquencies—was 1.9% in September 2019, down from 2.2% in September 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in September 2019, down from 0.7% in September 2018.
Some of the highest delinquency rates were in metro areas including New York and Miami, though Miami still experienced annual declines. The New York metro had the highest rate at 5.1%, while Miami, with the second-highest rate at 5%, saw a sharp decrease in the overall delinquency rate, falling from 6.1% in September 2018.
In a previous report, Molly Boesel, Principal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic stated that four of the five states with delinquency rate increases also had increases in unemployment rates.
“Job loss can trigger a loan delinquency, especially for families with limited savings,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The rise in overall delinquency in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin coincided with a rise in state unemployment rates between August 2018 and August 2019.”