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A consistent and steady decline in shadow inventory, which is the number of residential properties that are in foreclosure but not being sold because the owner is waiting for price appreciation, has been a broad trend nationwide, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist and SVP Lawrence Yun. On the NAR's blog, Yun wrote that a shorter shadow inventory, in addition to the shortage of visible inventory, will not help to relieve the low housing inventory situation.
The percentage of all mortgages comprised of shadow inventory has fallen from 10 percent a few years ago at the height of the crisis down to 4.5 percent, which is essentially back to normal when put in terms of foreclosure starts, which are at 46 percent. The thin shadow inventory compared with rising home values has caused the share of distressed home sales to drop to single digits. Since there will be fewer properties sold at deep discounts, this will cause home prices to strengthen, Yun said.
Due to current low interest rates and anticipated appreciation rates for the next few years, homeownership is "one of the last legitimate wealth creation opportunities," according to Tim Rood, chairman of Washington, D.C.-based business advisory firm The Collingwood Group in an interview with Westwood One radio host Dirk Van. Rood said that "The leveraged return if you put down 10 percent on a house, the trajectory of appreciation lately is you’re going to get your money back inside of a year and then after that 5 to 10 percent appreciation rates. It's phenomenal."
