As the housing market enters a new phase and new year, the nation’s forbearance totals seem to be normalizing, as the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey [1] found the total number of loans currently in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022.
The MBA now estimates that approximately 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans nationwide.
“There were pockets of weakness in the November data, despite the forbearance rate remaining unchanged and the overall loan performance of serviced loans staying mostly flat,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s VP of Industry Analysis [2]. “The forbearance rate for Ginnie Mae loans increased for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall performance of the portfolio declined for the third consecutive month. Furthermore, the performance of government post-forbearance workouts also weakened.”
As Walsh mentioned, Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased five basis points to 1.46% in November, up from 1.41%.
By other loan types, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased just one basis point to 0.32%, up from 0.31% recorded in October 2022.
The share of other loans (e.g., portfolio and PLS loans) in forbearance decreased relative to the prior month: from 1.03% to 0.97%.
“With many indicators pointing to a recession and higher unemployment in 2023, many of the most vulnerable homeowners will be those with FHA, VA, or other government loans,” added Walsh. “Loss mitigation options may help to ease the financial hardship for these homeowners.”
By stage, 37.8% of total loans in forbearance were in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 50.1% were in a forbearance extension. The remaining 12.1% were forbearance re-entries, including re-entries with extensions.
Of the cumulative forbearance exits for the period from June 1, 2020, through November 30, 2022, at the time of forbearance exit:
- 29.7% resulted in a loan deferral/partial claim.
- 18.2% represented borrowers who continued to make their monthly payments during their forbearance period.
- 17.3% represented borrowers who did not make all of their monthly payments and exited forbearance without a loss mitigation plan in place yet.
- 16.0% resulted in a loan modification or trial loan modification.
- 11.0% resulted in reinstatements, in which past-due amounts are paid back when exiting forbearance.
- 6.6% resulted in loans paid off through either a refinance or by selling the home.
- The remaining 1.2% resulted in repayment plans, short sales, deed-in-lieus or other reasons.
Total completed loan workouts from 2020 and onward (repayment plans, loan deferrals/partial claims, loan modifications) that were current as a percent of total completed workouts decreased to 76.89% in November from 78.16% the previous month.
Regionally, the five states with the highest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio included:
- Washington
- Idaho
- Colorado
- Utah
- Oregon
The five states with the lowest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio included:
- Mississippi
- Louisiana
- Indiana
- New York
- West Virginia
The share of loans that were current declined in 31 states compared to the previous month.
MBA’s monthly Loan Monitoring Survey covers the period from November 1 through November 30, 2022, and represents 66% of the first-mortgage servicing market (32.9 million loans).