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No New Foreclosure Wave in Sight for California: Report

Foreclosure activity in California was again mixed last month, according to a locally based firm that tracks every foreclosure action in the state, ""ForeclosureRadar"":http://www.foreclosureradar.com.
[IMAGE] The company’s latest California market report shows that foreclosure filings and cancellations dropped in July after rising the month before, while foreclosure sales rose after falling the month prior. But even with the up-and-down wave of indicators and some analysts predicting another setback in housing, ForecloureRadar says it doesn’t expect the foreclosure picture in the Golden State to worsen.

Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar, said, “We continue to hear a lot of concern about a double dip for housing, combined with increasing concern that another wave of foreclosures is coming as well. We see no evidence of a foreclosure wave anytime soon.”

O’Toole explained that if another foreclosure tsunami were about to hit California, there would be evidence of it in the numbers, months before those homes actually hit the market.

He agrees that there is a huge “shadow inventory” of homes that are delinquent in their mortgage payments, but those homes have a long path ahead to make it through the entire foreclosure process before hitting the market as REO listings.


ForeclosureRadar’s market research shows that the time duration of the foreclosure process in California, from the filing of the notice of default to the sale of the property at trustee auction has lengthened to an average of 226 days.

O’Toole says even if those properties already in foreclosure and currently scheduled for sale were pushed to the end of the pipeline, rather than postponing or canceling, it still takes lenders on average 269 days to resell those homes after the foreclosure sale occurs.

“Bottom line - we aren't ruling out a double dip for housing, but at least in California it certainly won't be caused by an excess supply of foreclosures anytime soon,” O’Toole said.

According to ""ForeclosureRadar’s July report"":http://files.foreclosureradar.com/foreclosure-report/July+2010+CA+Foreclosure+Report.pdf, notices of default dipped 4.82 percent compared to the previous month and were down an incredible 47.09 percent from a year earlier. Notices of trustee sale declined 18.91 percent between June and July.

Foreclosure cancellations were down too, though â€" 13.75 percent from the previous month. Lenders took back 13.46 percent more foreclosed homes in July than they did in June. However, the state’s total REO inventory declined to 81,536 properties as of the end of July, based on ForeclosureRadar’s market data.

The discount from the market value at which third parties, typically investors, were able to purchase properties at trustee sale, varied by county.

Orange County saw the toughest competition on the courthouse steps, with discounts from market value of just 15.3 percent, according to ForeclosureRadar. Kern and Fresno Counties offered the largest discounts at 29.3 and 29.9 percent, respectively. Statewide the average discount for a home bought at foreclosure auction was 21.6 percent.

About Author: Carrie Bay

Carrie Bay is a freelance writer for DS News and its sister publication MReport. She served as online editor for DSNews.com from 2008 through 2011. Prior to joining DS News and the Five Star organization, she managed public relations, marketing, and media relations initiatives for several B2B companies in the financial services, technology, and telecommunications industries. She also wrote for retail and nonprofit organizations upon graduating from Texas A&M University with degrees in journalism and English.

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