Pro Teck and Collateral Analytics Localize Home Value Forecasts

Massachusetts-based ""Pro Teck Valuation Services"":http://www.protk.com and ""Collateral Analytics"":http://www.collateralanalytics.com/, headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii, have teamed up to launch ""Home Value Forecast"":http://www.homevalueforecast.com (HVF).

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The inaugural edition of the monthly HVF was released Monday. The two partnering companies describe it as bringing ""a unique perspective on the U.S. housing market.""

""Our goal with the forecast is to highlight the fact that all real estate is local,"" the companies said in a statement. ""Regional trends are great for understanding the big picture, but one needs to understand micro market drivers to make fully informed decisions about specific real estate assets.

A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) level real estate market ranking system has been developed for the ""homevalueforecast.com"":http://www.homevalueforecast.com website. Data used in HVF include local market multiple listing services (MLS), public real estate records, and other economic sources.

The rankings are run for single-family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of real estate indicators. These include the number of active listings; average listing price; number of sales; average time on market; average sales price; number of foreclosure sales; and number of new listings.

The ranking system is based on the directional trend of each series using actual data over the past eight quarters. The trends are then defined as being increasing, stable, or decreasing.

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Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative, or neutral for that series. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each indicator.

From the universe of the top 200 CBSAs, Pro Teck and Collateral Analytics highlight each month the CBSAs which have the highest and lowest composite scores.

The companies note that the top-ranked CBSAs exhibit a consistent theme in that prices have declined significantly from their peak 2005-2006 levels and have been moving sideways or slightly downwards for more than two years.

""While the first thought might be to assume that these are very depressed markets with little prospect for improvement, the positive trends in our various indicators suggest that buyers are taking advantage of the depressed prices and the corresponding excellent values,"" the companies explained.

Conversely, in a number of the lowest ranked CBSAs, prices have held up quite well since the peak. However, the negative trends in the various market indicators suggest that prices may have further to fall before these markets regain their equilibrium.

*This month's top-ranked CBSAs:*
# Cape Coral â€" Fort Myers, FL
# North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota, FL
# Punta Gorda, FL
# Lakeland, FL
# Orlando/Kissimmee/Sanford, FL
# Syracuse, NY
# Tallahassee, FL
# Bakersfield/Delano, CA
# Bend, OR
# Bethesda/Rockville/Frederick, MD

*This month's lowest-ranked CBSAs:*
# Portland/Vancouver/Hillsboro, OR-WA
# Racine, WI
# Reno/Sparks, NV
# Spokane, WA
# Toledo, OH
# Tucson, AZ
# Vallejo/Fairfield, CA
# Hickory/Lenoir/Morganton, NC
# Richmond, VA
# Olympia, WA