An estimated 8.1 million homes in the United States, or 16 percent of all outstanding mortgages, will be foreclosed over the next four years, according to a recent research and analytics report issued by the 152-year old financial institution ""Credit Suisse"":http://www.credit-suisse.com. That figure is up significantly from the group's 6.5 million forecast in April.
""At the time, most viewed our forecast as being overly gloomy,"" a team of analysts, led by Rod Dubistsky, wrote, referring to their April estimate. The analysts said that even then, based on trends in delinquencies, growing negative equity, and the downward spiral expected in home prices, ""the forecast seemed reasonable.""
And now, ""The severe recession that appears more and more likely, coupled with the collapse of confidence in housing and resultant foreclosures and the impact on credit scores, risks transforming the U.S. into a subprime society,"" the analysts said in the report.
The housing downturn, now in its third year, has triggered a U.S. recession and rising unemployment that have only worsened mortgage delinquencies. The Credit Suisse analysts said that these severe conditions may even push foreclosure numbers over the next four years to above the 10 million mark.