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Initial Jobless Claims Rise After Sharp Drop

First-time claims for unemployment insurance increased 17,000 to 361,000 for the week ending December 15, the ""Labor Department"":http://www.ows.doleta.gov/press/2012/122012.asp reported Thursday. Economists expected claims to increase to 359,000.

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The previous week's report was revised upward to 344,000 from the originally reported 343,000.

Continuing claims--reported on a one-week lag--also increased, rising 12,000 to 3,225,000 for the week ending December 8. The previous week's initial report of 3,198,000 continuing claims was revised upward to 3,213,000. The continuing claims data series tracks the number of longer-term unemployed who qualify for regular state jobless benefits.

This week's report covered the reference week used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to develop the monthly employment situation report. Month-over-month comparisons of jobless claims--both new and continuing--are complicated, though, by superstorm Sandy, which caused a spike in both data series. The BLS report will be released on January 4.

That said, both the number of first-time claims and the smoothing four-week moving average showed improvement from mid-month to mid-month, suggesting that the surge in storm-related layoffs has passed.

Cutting through the exogenous events and the seasonal adjustments, the report was consistent with trends showing a stronger labor market with fewer layoffs.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending December 1 was 5,402,429, a decrease of 238,637 from the previous week. There were 7,152,130 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2011. Extended benefits were only available in New York during the week ending December 1.

According to the BLS, unemployment was 12,029,000 in November, which means that of those individuals counted as unemployed, 6.81 million were not receiving any form of government unemployment insurance, up from 6.39 million one week earlier.

States have been borrowing from the federal government to cover shortfalls in those funds which will eventually have to be repaid--unless Congress intervenes--with higher assessments on employers. Since those assessments are a percentage of payrolls, they discourage employers from adding new workers. As of December 18, 20 states have an aggregate $26.7 billion in outstanding loans to cover shortfalls, up from $26.5 billion one week earlier. California accounted for 37.7 percent of the borrowing.

The Labor Department said states reported 2,096,545 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending December 1, a decrease of 97,708 from the prior week. There were 2,941,157 persons claiming EUC in the comparable week in 2011.

According to the Labor Department detail, also reported on a one-week lag, the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 8 were in California (+5,952), Florida (+749), Ohio (+743), Rhode Island (+197), and Colorado (+161), while the largest decreases were in New York (-11,295), Pennsylvania (-11,247), North Carolina (-8,564), Wisconsin (-5,726) and Georgia (-5,317).

_Hear Mark Lieberman every Friday on P.O.T.U.S. radio, Sirius-XM 124, at 6:40 am and again at 9:40 eastern time._

About Author: Mark Lieberman

Mark Lieberman is the former Senior Economist at Fox Business Network. He is now Managing Director and Senior Economist at Economics Analytics Research. He can be heard each Friday on The Morning Briefing on POTUS on Sirius-XM Radio 124.
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