Veros Forecast Bodes Well for California, Not for Florida

""Veros Real Estate Solutions"":http://www.veros.com, a risk management firm headquartered in Santa Ana, California, released an update to its U.S. ""real estate market forecast"":http://www.veros.com/vvforecast.html Wednesday. The company says it has good news for California, Texas, and Louisiana markets. It's a different story, though, for hard-hit Florida.

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Veros' quarterly forecast update for June 2010 through June 2011 indicates new findings amid consistent gains in some markets in the South and the Sunbelt. The company's analysis measures market strength based on a number of key factors, ranging from interest, unemployment, and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and economic and geographic trends.

Eric Fox, Veros' VP of statistical and economic modeling, explained that a growing number of coastal California markets are showing signs of improvement. California's Inland Empire area â€" including Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ontario â€" is seeing modest appreciation in home prices, joining the state's strongest metro region, San Diego.

A new entry among the top five positive trending areas in Veros' study is Louisiana's Shreveport and Bossier City

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area, which is well-removed from the Gulf Coast and the oil spill disaster wreaking havoc along the coastline.

Fox noted that the Houston metro area is also demonstrating modest improvement, and at this point is not yet exhibiting any severe impacts in the residential real estate market from the Gulf oil spill catastrophe.

*Projected Five Strongest Markets*
# Shreveport/Bossier City, Louisiana
# San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos, California
# Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, California
# Amarillo, Texas
# Houston/Sugar Land/Baytown, Texas

In general, Fox says, the Central Plains areas are continuing to hold values in the next year. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and east to parts of Louisiana and Arkansas are holding steady, underscoring a weak but consistent mild recovery, according to Fox.

Chico, California leads the list of weakening markets, but Florida continues its depreciation trend in many areas along its East Coast. Nevada's second largest market, Reno/Sparks, stays on the list of weakest markets, while Las Vegas avoided inclusion.

*Projected Five Weakest Markets*
# Chico, California
# Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Florida
# Reno/Sparks, Nevada
# Vero Beach, Florida
# Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Florida

Adding a note of optimism, Fox pointed out that Veros' 24-month projections show many markets are indicating stronger recoveries two years from now.

""Although there aren't any overwhelmingly strong appreciating forecasts in the near term, the depreciating ones are milder than they were a year ago,"" Fox said.