IHS Offers Electoral Perspective on Wisconsin

Wisconsin may be a hard case in this year’s presidential election, according to ""IHS Global Insights"":http://www.ihs.com/.

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The company released an examination of the Badger State’s economy as part of its ongoing series on swing states in the 2012 election. Whereas states like ""Colorado"":http://dsnews.comarticles/ihs-examines-colorado-in-swing-state-economic-report-2012-09-17 and ""New Hampshire"":http://dsnews.comarticles/ihs-puts-new-hampshire-under-microscope-for-swing-state-report-2012-09-21 have fair-to-middling economic pictures, IHS called Wisconsin’s employment situation in 2012 “grim.”

While the country as a whole experienced year-over-year job growth above 1.0 percent each month through July, Wisconsin saw year-over-year declines every month. As of July, payrolls in the state have fallen 0.8 percent from the same time in 2011.

While the manufacturing sector is creating jobs â€" expanding at a 1.3 percent pace since July 2011 â€" other sectors haven’t fared as well.

“The already beleaguered construction sector continues to be pummeled, shedding 7.7 percent [year-over-year] in July because of continued weak demand for new single-family homes and a lack of public infrastructure projects,” IHS said in its report.

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“And contrary to the trend throughout most of the country, where professional and business services has been a stalwart of the recovery, that sector’s payrolls have declined 0.8 percent [in Wisconsin],"" the company continued.

While the state’s jobless rate has remained below the national average, it does continue to climb. Unemployment in Wisconsin hit 7.3 percent in July, up from 7.0 percent a month before.

IHS doesn’t anticipate any great news for the state, projecting flat payroll growth in the second half of the year as the construction and business services sectors continue to flounder. Factory employment is expected to buoy the state.

Although the labor market is suffering, the housing market has managed to hold its own. Wisconsin home values saw gains in the first half of the year, climbing 1.3 percent, according to FHFA’s purchase-only index. However, that kind of performance is not expected to continue â€" a combination of lackluster job creation and weak demand is expected to bring home prices down 0.1 percent in the second half of 2012.

Meanwhile, the percentage of loans in foreclosure as a share of total loans is 3.2 percent, well below the national average of 4.3 percent.

Wisconsin has been a contentious state for both major parties this year, with Republican governor Scott Walker surviving a recall vote among a divided populace. Both major parties have turned the Badger State into a battleground, making fundraising visits and buying television time to woo potential voters in the state vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan calls home.