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Tag Archives: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Outlook for Housing and Economy Remain Positive Despite Q1 GDP Contraction

Despite economic growth taking a step backward, the forecast for housing for the rest of the year remains positive, according to Fannie Mae SVP and chief economist Doug Duncan. New home sales increased by 6.8 percent in April up to 517,000 annualized units; the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index has risen by 14 percent in the last 12 months; existing home sales are at a nine-year high; and purchase applications recovered at the end of May from a slow first half of the month up near a two-year high.

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Economists Retain Positive Outlook Despite ‘Paltry’ GDP Growth in First Q1 Estimate

forecast

In spite of the recent reports of slow economic growth in Q1, Fannie Mae has maintained its forecast for GDP growth of 2.8 percent this year and its position that the economy will "drag housing upward." Fannie Mae chief economist and SVP Doug Duncan pointed out that the actuals as far as housing – existing home sales, new home sales, and prices – were either at or very close to their predicted levels during Q1, and mortgage purchase applications have been way up for the last couple of months.

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Q3 GDP Revision Pushes Economy to Fastest Growth in a Decade

According to BEA, the latest quarterly estimate includes improved contributions from consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent compared to Q2's 2.5 percent gain. Also improved in the third report was the contribution from nonresidential fixed investment, which increased 8.9 percent. Residential fixed investment—a measure of the housing market's direct contribution to economic activity—increased just 3.2 percent.

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GDP Inches Upward In BEA’s Third Estimate

According to BEA, the turnaround in the second quarter largely reflected positive contributions from consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and both residential and non-residential fixed investment.

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