If extremely severe economic conditions were to fall upon the U.S., 15 of the 19 banks tested by the Fed's stress scenario projections are said to be able to survive and continue to lend. The hypothetical stressful scenario included a 13 percent unemployment rate, 50 percent decline in equity prices, and a 20 percent decline in home prices. The scenario covers nine quarters into the fourth quarter of 2013, and the four banks that failed - Ally Financial, Citigroup, SunTrust, and MetLife - were said to have one or more projected regulatory capital ratios that fell below the 5 percent minimum levels at some point over the stress scenario horizon, according to the Fed.
Read More »Housing Market on Long Road to Recovery, Capital Economics Says
The housing market is healing, a Capital Economics report stated, but the road to recovery will be a long and gradual one. The research firm expects to see home sales and homebuilding continue with increases, while house prices are expected to finally stop falling later this year. While certain areas of the housing market appear to be moving in a positive direction, Capital Economics still points out that with the growth come constraints, such as Eurozone issues and tightened lending standards.
Read More »When Excluding Distressed Sales, Home Prices Show Monthly Gain
While home prices declined on a year-over-year basis in January 2012, a month-over-month gain was seen when excluding distressed sales, according to CoreLogic's January Home Price Index (HPI). Prices declined 3.1 percent in January 2012 compared to a year ago in January 2011. But, when excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.9 percent, and a month-over-month gain of 0.7 percent was seen for January. Distressed sales include short sales and REO transactions.
Read More »Life After Case-Shiller Report: Projecting Trends
While the Case-Shiller indexes reported new lows for house prices for the end of 2011, responses from analysts are mixed when determining what the data means for home values in the long run. Experts representing Capital Economics, IHS Global Insight, and Standard and Poor’s assessed the implications of the data for the future. While Capital Economics believes the decline may come to an end after a few more months, others are expecting this trend to continue into 2012.
Read More »Homeownership and Vacancy Rates Drop
The percentage of single-family homes sitting empty fell to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That's down from 2.7 percent at the beginning of last year, and the lowest homeowner vacancy rate since early 2006. Analysts say it's a sign that excess inventory - at least the visible inventory - is slowly but surely beginning to clear. The Census Bureau also reported that the nation's homeownership rate dropped to 66.0 percent - its lowest level in nearly 14 years.
Read More »Housing Will Soon Help the Economy, but Not by Much: Report
The analysts at Capital Economics are holding fast to their forecast that the downturn in the housing market is drawing to a close. As a result, they say housing should soon start to boost economic growth, but as it now makes up only a small share of the economy, the sector is unlikely to add much more than 0.2 percentage points to annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year. In the fourth quarter of 2011, residential investment accounted for just 2.5 percent of overall GDP. That's down from the 2005 peak of 6.3 percent and the 1946 to 2008 average of 4.8 percent.
Read More »Rise in Home Sales Signifies Strengthening Market: Economists
The long-awaited housing recovery is beginning to blossom, according to industry experts taking a look at recent existing-home sales data. While admitting home sales are ""still very low,"" the chief economist at Capital Economics says it is clear the housing recovery is now well underway. The evidence: home sales have been on the rise for the past three months, posting a 5 percent increase in December, according to the latest market study released by the National Association of Realtors.
Read More »Housing Market Strengthening But Long Road to Recovery Lies Ahead
The year 2011 is ending on a high note as economists anticipate some positive movement in the housing market. Prices appear to be reaching their trough, visible supply is on the decline, and banks are beginning just slightly to loosen lending standards, according to a fourth-quarter report from Capital Economics. However, the research firm warns these positive signs do not point to an immediate recovery, particularly with housing undervalued by the most it's been since at least 1975.
Read More »Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.6%
The nation's unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent during the month of November, as employers added 120,000 new jobs to their payrolls, the U.S. Department of Labor said Friday. By the government's calculations, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point from 9.0 percent reported in October to hit its lowest level since March of 2009. Employment assessments for both October and September were revised upward. Analysts were expecting the economy to add 125,000 new jobs last month, but the rate to hold at 9.0 percent.
Read More »Are We an Industry Afraid of Our Shadows?
Estimates of the industry's shadow inventory vary widely, but one thing analysts do agree on is that the overhang is massive and will likely weigh on market dynamics for years to come. Measurements of soon-to-be repossessed and foreclosed homes that have yet to hit the market range from 1.6 million to 8.2 million. Capital Economics' assessment falls in the middle of that range, and the company's analysts say if anything, theirs is probably an underestimate. They put the industry's shadow inventory at 4.3 million homes.
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