Tag Archives: Consumer Spending

With an upbeat assessment of the economy, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged and to continue its program of purchasing agency mortgage backed securities and longer term Treasury securities ""to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.""

Led by a surge in gasoline prices, retail sales rose 1.1 percent in February, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. Economists had expected an increase of 0.5 percent. In January, retails sales rose 0.2 percent. Gasoline station sales rose 5.0 percent in February after a 0.7 percent increase in January.

Perhaps the most important piece of economic news in the last few days was not the continued drop in the unemployment rate or the positive blurbs in the Beige Book or even the Dow reaching a new record high, but Thursday's quarterly Flow of Funds report. According to the report for Q4 2012, household assets grew to $79.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1.3 trillion--not too shabby. Household financial assets were up $784 billion to $54.4 billion but home equity (the value of household real estate less loans against that real estate) grew $452.8 billion, the result of two moving parts: real estate values (which increased) and household mortgage liabilities, which dropped.

The sad fact of the budget sequestration being played out in Washington is how avoidable it was. The sadder fact is that however temporary it might prove to be--and that appears from a distance to be more of a wish than a forecast--it will affect real people, and not well. The effects of sequestration go beyond the impact of jobs loss because defense or other contractors are not hired or because federal workers are furloughed. The effects will put even more homeowners at risk of delinquency, or worse, foreclosure, just at a time when the housing sector is recovering.

Personal income dropped $505.5 billion, or 3.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) fell $491.4 billion, or 4.0 percent, in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.2 billion, or 0.2 percent in January. In December, personal income increased $353.4 billion, or 2.6 percent, DPI increased $325.7 billion, or 2.7 percent, and PCE increased $14.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The nation's economy increased at a 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Last month, in the advance GDP release, BEA had reported the nation's economy contracted by 0.1 percent, the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected the turnaround, but to a stronger 0.5 percent growth rate.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke underscored benefits of the Fed's quantitative easing policy while also pointing to associated costs and risks in his written testimony to Senators Tuesday. According to Bernanke, the benefits of the purchase and policy accommodation are clear. ""Monetary policy is providing important support to the recovery while keeping inflation close to the FOMC's 2 percent objective. Notably, keeping longer-term interest rates low has helped spark recovery in the housing market and led to increased sales and production of automobiles and other durable goods,"" he said.

Bolstered by favorable seasonal adjustment factors, first-time claims for unemployment insurance dropped 27,000 to 341,000 for the week ending February 9, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected a much smaller decline to 360,000. Initial claims were under 350,000--a dividing line between a strong and weak labor market--for the third time in the last five weeks, hinting layoff activity has returned to normal.

Battered by storms and droughts, real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday. The decrease marks the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected a weak 1.0 percent growth compared with the 3.1 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. The GDP downturn does not automatically signal a return to recession, which is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Two housing reports in the week just demonstrated, yet again, economists are not infallible. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales for December: 4.94 million against a consensus forecast of 5.1 million. Then on Friday, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly 369,000 new homes were sold in December compared with a consensus forecast of 388,000. There are several important housing related reports due out next week, but they will take a backseat to the report on fourth quarter GDP and Friday's report on the employment situation.