Tag Archives: Delinquency Rate

Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, says he expects long-term mortgage rates to hold below the 5 percent threshold throughout 2011, as key macroeconomic drivers provide a backdrop that supports a continued, albeit gradual, housing recovery. Turning to home prices, Nothaft says markets that have large inventories of for-sale homes and REO properties will continue to see home-value weakness in 2011, but he believes price indexes for the U.S. as a whole are close to bottoming out.

The annual consumer credit forecast from U.S. credit bureau TransUnion foretells a 20 percent drop in national mortgage loan delinquencies by the end of 2011. TransUnion predicts that the number of delinquent accounts -- 60 or more days past due -- will drop to 4.98 percent from an expected 6.21 percent at the conclusion of 2010. The company anticipates at least double-digit declines in mortgage delinquencies in every state and the District of Columbia through 2011.

For every home loan held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that was modified during the third quarter, 2.3 loans were foreclosed on during the same period. The GSEs initiated foreclosure on 339,000 home mortgages during the July to September timeframe. Loan modifications completed in the quarter totaled 146,500, with the majority of those completed through non-HAMP programs. The two companies approved 29,500 short sales during the third quarter.

Moody's rating service and Fitch Ratings both reported increases in defaulted commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) last month, of 24 and 18 basis points, respectively. Both companies show the office sector with the greatest increases in delinquencies across the five core property types in November.

Lender Processing Services (LPS) offered the media a sneak peek at its upcoming November mortgage market report Thursday. Based on the company's assessment, the number of home loans in the United States 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure declined slightly. LPS' study will show that 6,925,000 mortgages were past due or already winding their way through the foreclosure pipeline as of the end of November. The previous month, the company's analysts put the figure at 7,043,000.

New data from ForeclosureRadar shows that though there has been no major drop in delinquencies in the West Coast states of Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington, foreclosure starts have fallen to 2008 levels. The company's report deduces that the drop in foreclosures is due to robo-signing issues and the moratoriums that followed the controversy. Notice of default filings in November were down 9.3 percent in California, while notice of sale filings dropped a stunning 31.7 percent in Washington.

New data from HOPE NOW shows that the industry completed more than 1.5 million loan modifications for at-risk homeowners from January through October of this year. That translates to an average of 154,000 homeowners per month who have been able to remain in their homes with an affordable loan modification solution. The report makes it clear, though, that there's far more work to be done. HOPE NOW says there are currently 3.4 million homeowners 60 or more days behind on their mortgage payments.

Freddie Mac announced Tuesday that beginning in January 2011, the company will begin disclosing pool-level delinquency data on a monthly basis for all single-family Freddie Mac Participation Certificate (PC) and Giant PC securities. Freddie Mac says providing this delinquency disclosure data at the pool level will make the company's delinquency disclosures consistent with an industry practice previously established by Ginnie Mae.

The recent optimism surrounding delinquencies on commercial real estate loans bundled into investment bonds has been hit with a blast of cold water. The rate of past due loans suddenly jumped in November after a big decline the month before. According to data from Trepp LLC, the percentage of loans held in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that were 30 or more days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO rose 35 basis points in November to 8.93 percent, putting the value of delinquent loans at $60.3 billion.

The credit analytics firm FICO has released the results of its fourth-quarter survey of bank risk professionals. The consensus is that lending will remain tight well into next year and a greater number of banks could face failure, but fewer bankers believe delinquency rates for home loans will keep rising. But FICO says until lenders put the problems in their mortgage portfolios behind them and see sustained growth in employment, the significant gap between credit demand and credit supply is unlikely to close.