Tag Archives: Doug Duncan

Fannie Mae is still predicting recession conditions to occur this year due to a slow down in the economy, and a tightening of credit standards.

“This month’s increase in the HPSI was the largest in over two years, primarily driven by consumers’ more optimistic mortgage rate expectations,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s SVP and Chief Economist.

While mortgage rates and supply constraints persist, the significant lack of housing supply remains supportive of home prices, as prices inched up 1% in Q1 2023.

Due to stronger economic performance than expected in Q1, Fannie Mae has pushed back the predicted recession to start sometime in the second half of the year.

Even with a recession in the forecast, the economy appears to be an unexpectedly good place to start off the year according to Fannie Mae.

With both home prices and interest rates remaining relatively high, consumer sentiment is being suppressed by these purchase conditions.

"There are economic signals pointing to recession but also signs that a 'soft landing' may be in the offing," said Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae.

Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s SVP and Chief Economist, noted that “respondents continue to cite high home prices and unfavorable mortgage rates as the primary reasons for their pessimism.”

Responses to a recent Fannie Mae survey show high mortgage rates are contributing to near-all-time low optimism among potential buyers and sellers.

A new Fannie Mae report finds consumer confidence declining to the lowest level seen in the report’s 11-year history.