Tag Archives: Fitch Ratings

The housing market is seeing signs of recovery, and this recovery may be bolstered by the new representation and warranty framework the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced Tuesday, according to Fitch. Relying on signing offers and home tours as a future indicator of home sales, Redfin, a technology-driven real estate broker, predicts the market improvement seen this summer will continue into the fall.

Adverse selection is leading to rating downgrades for one of the strongest U.S. residential mortgage vintages, the pre-2005 vintage, according to Fitch Ratings. Residential mortgage-backed securities formed before 2005 have historically performed well, according to Fitch. While this may be true, Grant Bailey, managing director at Fitch, explained, ""Many high-quality mortgage borrowers are refinancing to take advantage of record-low interest rates, leaving the remaining mortgage pools increasingly concentrated with borrowers unable to refinance.""

The slowing pace of workouts hasn't stopped CMBS special servicer volume from falling, Fitch Ratings reported. According to Fitch's weekly U.S. CMBS Market Trends newsletter, the balance of loans in special servicing as of June 30 was $80.5 billion, a drop from $83.1 billion at the end of 2011 and $85.6 billion in June 2011. This news comes despite a slowdown in resolutions in the year's first half, with 1,242 loans resolved in that time (compared to 1,556 in the first half of 2011).

Earlier this week, FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac revealed new short sale guidelines to take effect November 1 of this year. The new guidelines are expected to make short sales easier to process and will open up the foreclosure alternative to borrowers not in default if they have certain hardships. While Fitch Ratings views these new rules as a plus for the housing market in the long term, the ratings agency said, ""in the short term, the new guidelines could increase losses on some existing bank home equity or second lien portfolios.""

An increase in loan modifications led to fewer delinquencies for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in July, according to Fitch Ratings. The decrease in CMBS delinquencies is the second consecutive month of declines as CMBS delinquencies fell to 8.48 percent in July, a drop of 14 basis points (bps) from June's 8.62 percent. According to the ratings agency, two large loan mods helped bring down the past due rate - the $305 million Schron Industrial Portfolio and the $210 million Savoy Park.

In a commentary, Fitch stated the proposed uses of eminent domain in California could negatively affect private label RMBS performance. Recently, the board of supervisors of San Bernardino County voted to form a joint powers authority with California cities Fontana and Ontario to look into the option of using eminent domain to seize underwater mortgages. Fitch said one proposal, which is of particular concern, indicates that only current and delinquent mortgages, not those in foreclosure, would be eligible. Thus, borrowers who would have stayed current on their payments could have their mortgage seized by the local, state, or county government. If eminent domain was to be used in such a way, then holders of the seized homes could experience losses, Fitch said.

Fitch Ratings released a commentary Thursday asserting that FHFA's plan to clarify the triggers for a loan repurchase request could be a boon for the industry at large. FHFA had made an earlier announcement that the agency intended to clarify its positions on the appropriate triggers for a putback request from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The GSEs have asked for more than $80 billion in flawed loan repurchases from lenders over the past three years. As a result, it has been argued that lenders have raised standards for loans beyond what many homebuyers can achieve. In the commentary, Fitch suggested that laying out putback triggers and reducing putback liability will have an overall positive effect for the housing market.

Through the $25 billion robo-signing settlement between federal and state officials and the five largest banks - Bank of America, Citi, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Ally - $10 billion was set aside for principal reductions. According Fitch Ratings, the funds set aside for writing down principal will have little impact on private label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Fitch stated that the private label result of principal reduction through the settlement will likely reach only 10 percent of underwater borrowers. Overall, Fitch estimates there is about $203 billion in negative equity for private-label RMBS.

Fitch Ratings released a report projecting another 7.8 percent drop in U.S. home prices before the market reaches sustainability, according to the rating agency's fourth quarter sustainable home price (SHP) report. This is a decrease from last quarter's prediction of a 9.1 percent drop. As long as economic growth is steady and inflation runs close to 3 percent annually, Fitch believes home prices will finally hit bottom in late 2013, and then move towards a slow recovery.

In response to mortgage servicing rules the Consumer Financial Protection announced it may propose, Fitch Ratings issued a statement and said it believes mortgage servicers will incur increased operational, compliance, and reporting expenses if the rules take effect. To create more transparency, the CFPB said it is considering rules which require clear monthly mortgage statements, a warning before interest rates adjust, options to avoid ""force-placed"" insurance, and early information to keep customers out of foreclosure.