Tag Archives: Housing Supply

Economic activity continues to grow but the pace has moderated in many parts of the country, weighed down by a persistent weakness in the residential real estate sector, according to the latest market-gauging Beige Book from the Federal Reserve. Contacts in the Boston district said housing markets ""remain in the doldrums."" A pickup in sales of higher-priced homes was evident in the D.C. area. In the Kansas City region, they're seeing an increase in all-cash purchases of existing homes, while demand in the Dallas district was described as ""choppy.""

Tight credit conditions for first-time buyers and a foreclosure pipeline full of homes bought with subprime loans mean that house prices at the low end of the market will continue to fall at a faster rate than prices at the middle and high end, according to Capital Economics. The bulk of these low-end homes consists of distressed properties, which already carry steep discounts as lenders and investors try to capture a piece of the limited demand out there to get these homes off their books and back into the hands of responsible homeowners.

Backlogged foreclosures, severe oversupply, and negative equity are pulling home prices down further, according to Radar Logic. The company tracks 25 major metropolitan areas across the country. Its latest index recorded a decline in the composite reading of 5.1 percent in April when compared to April 2010. The monthly sales rate remained more than 9 percent below April 2010. While sales of non-foreclosed homes increased more quickly than sales of foreclosed homes, RadarLogic says foreclosures are selling at an average discount of 39 percent.

The shadow inventory of repossessed and soon-to-be repossessed homes not yet visible to the market has been trimmed, according to CoreLogic. The company reports that as of April 2011, the industry's shadow supply fell to 1.7 million units, down from 1.9 million a year earlier. CoreLogic attributes the decline to fewer new delinquencies and a high level of distressed sales, which has helped to reduce the deluge of foreclosure properties on a market already beset by a supply and demand imbalance.

Distressed properties accounted for just 31 percent of existing-home sales in May, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday. The ratio of distressed homes - typically bank-owned or pre-foreclosure short sales - was down from 37 percent in April and 40 percent in March. A pick-up in non-distressed sales volume is typical for the spring and summer seasons, but last month, overall sales of previously owned homes dropped along with the distressed percentage to hit a six-month low.

Experts blame the massive inventory of existing homes on the market for hindering the housing sector's recovery. The overhang has been inflated by large volumes of foreclosures, and it's expected to grow with millions more coming down the pipeline. One economist says it will take 6.5 million new household formations to absorb the excess inventory. He expects it will take five years to achieve that goal and emerge from the self-defeating cycle of oversupply pushing prices down, the negative equity triggering defaults, and in turn, further increasing the oversupply.

RealtyTrac has released a new report detailing foreclosure sales activity during the first quarter. Altogether, third parties purchased a total of 158,434 bank-owned and short sale homes during the first three months of this year. That's down 36 percent from a year earlier. At this pace, it would take three years to clear the current inventory of properties already on the banks' books or in foreclosure. REOs sold at an average discount of 35 percent in Q1, while short sale properties carried a mark-down of nearly 9 percent.

Fannie Mae's latest market outlook continues to call for a ""modest improvement"" in housing activity this year, although the prevalence of distressed properties on the market has led to renewed weakness in home prices and the industry's shadow inventory looms large. The GSE's chief economist notes that as the economic recovery approaches its two-year anniversary in June, housing has not yet contributed to economic growth in any meaningful way and is significantly underperforming compared to previous market recoveries.

The already clogged foreclosure system in Florida could come to a near standstill this summer after state legislators voted not to extend a special round of funding approved last year, which awarded $6 million to the state court system to increase personnel and resources for handling foreclosure actions. That line item didn't make it back into the budget for the new fiscal year, which begins in July. One judge in Palm Beach County has already started cancelling scheduled foreclosure hearings.

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that the share of distressed home sales dropped last month, accounting for 37 percent of total existing-home sales volume, down from 40 percent in March. Overall, sales of previously owned homes fell back 0.8 percent in April, to an annual sales pace of 5.05 million. Realtors in the field say the numbers are being impacted by low appraisals that result in contract cancellations. There were 3.87 million existing homes available for sale in April, which represents a 9.2-month supply.