Tag Archives: IHS Global Insight

As part of its ongoing series on economic issues in this year's election swing states, IHS Global Insight released a report on the Centennial State: Colorado. The report revealed that addressing housing and the economy in the state may not be the best tack for either major party candidate to take, as Coloradans have relatively little to worry about on both counts.

For swing state Iowa, political leaders will probably fare better if they focus on the state's supply of corn rather than its foreclosures.

IHS' US Regional Economic Group released a report on Florida's economy as part of a series cataloguing the economic issues most important to swing states in November's presidential election. According to the report, the Sunshine State's payrolls averaged a 0.1 percent annualized decline during the first half of the year, with weaknesses showing up in the construction sector, as well as in state and local government employment.

Compared to the two-year high for new home sales in May, June's figures were met with disappointment. On Wednesday, the Census Bureau reported new home sales dropped 8.4 percent month-over-month. In an IHS Global Insight commentary, economists Patrick Newport and Michele Valverde pointed out that figures for March, April, and May were all revised up, and that sales were up in the Midwest and West, but down in the Northeast and South.Thus, IHS described the report as mixed. Also, unless June ends up breaking the trend for upward revisions, a Capital Economics report said June's sales would have actually been 383,000 if the adjustments seen in previous months are added.

Following the news from Case-Shiller that home prices rose in April for the first time in seven months, IHS Global Insight and Capital Economics both released commentaries speculating on the unexpected news and the housing market's future. IHS attributed the uptick in prices to three factors: Current low mortgage rates, strong investor demand, and a drop in homeowners listing their homes for sale. Capital Economics pointed to tight supply conditions as a cause for the price gain and said that these conditions are unlikely to last with foreclosure and short-sale processes happening quicker than before.

Following the release of the first quarter 2012 Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, economists from IHS Global Insight and Capital Economics offered their take on whether the data indicates the market is stabilizing or still searching for a bottom. Patrick Newport and Michelle Valverde, U.S. Economists for IHS Global Insight, said it depends on where you are since prices are driven by local forces such as foreclosure rates and job growth.

The report, put together by IHS U.S. Regional Economist Steven Frable, stated that Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, and Louisiana have all reached or passed their prerecession employment levels, with Alaska and North Dakota reporting peak employment in 2010-11. These four states are also experiencing the most benefits from the current energy boom. Many other states have bounced almost all the way back, coming within 1 percent of their employment peaks.

The economy added 115,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent. With an upward revision of 53,000, March's payroll growth is now 159,000. Economists expected payrolls to grow by 165,000 for April. The government sector cut 15,000 jobs, and the private sector added 130,000 jobs. With these reported numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economists from IHS Global Insight, Capital Economics, and Fannie Mae provided their own analysis on what the numbers really mean and what they may indicate for the future.

While the Case-Shiller indexes reported new lows for house prices for the end of 2011, responses from analysts are mixed when determining what the data means for home values in the long run. Experts representing Capital Economics, IHS Global Insight, and Standard and Poor’s assessed the implications of the data for the future. While Capital Economics believes the decline may come to an end after a few more months, others are expecting this trend to continue into 2012.

The ongoing turmoil still gripping housing markets across the country has manifested itself in the Federal Reserve's macro assessment of household wealth and capital flow. With foreclosure stripping millions of Americans of their largest asset and potential homebuyers still watching for the market bottom, the total sum of home mortgage debt in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years. Outstanding mortgage debt contracted by 1.8 percent over the third-quarter period to $9.88 trillion.