Tag Archives: Mark Lieberman

Perhaps the most important piece of economic news in the last few days was not the continued drop in the unemployment rate or the positive blurbs in the Beige Book or even the Dow reaching a new record high, but Thursday's quarterly Flow of Funds report. According to the report for Q4 2012, household assets grew to $79.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1.3 trillion--not too shabby. Household financial assets were up $784 billion to $54.4 billion but home equity (the value of household real estate less loans against that real estate) grew $452.8 billion, the result of two moving parts: real estate values (which increased) and household mortgage liabilities, which dropped.

The sad fact of the budget sequestration being played out in Washington is how avoidable it was. The sadder fact is that however temporary it might prove to be--and that appears from a distance to be more of a wish than a forecast--it will affect real people, and not well. The effects of sequestration go beyond the impact of jobs loss because defense or other contractors are not hired or because federal workers are furloughed. The effects will put even more homeowners at risk of delinquency, or worse, foreclosure, just at a time when the housing sector is recovering.

Personal income dropped $505.5 billion, or 3.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) fell $491.4 billion, or 4.0 percent, in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.2 billion, or 0.2 percent in January. In December, personal income increased $353.4 billion, or 2.6 percent, DPI increased $325.7 billion, or 2.7 percent, and PCE increased $14.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The nation's economy increased at a 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Last month, in the advance GDP release, BEA had reported the nation's economy contracted by 0.1 percent, the first ""negative growth"" since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009. Economists had expected the turnaround, but to a stronger 0.5 percent growth rate.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 22,000 to 344,000 for the week ended February 23, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected 360,000 initial unemployment claims. The drop in filings--the third in the last four weeks--resumed a downward trend in layoffs.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 4.5 percent to 105.9 in January, its highest level in almost three years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The monthly increase was the strongest since May, when the index rose 4.9 percent. Despite the strong report, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun remained cautious. ""Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher home sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages,"" Yun said.

New home sales jumped 15.6 percent in January--the strongest gain in 20 years--to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000, the highest since July 2008, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the report to show a much smaller sales pace: 381,000. January's rate of sales was the highest since July 2008. At the same time, the months' supply of new homes for sale dropped to its lowest level since March 2005.

Home prices rose at their fastest pace since July 2006, according to the Case Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. At the same the Case Shiller national index, reported quarterly, registered its strongest gain since Q2 2006. The 10- and 20-city indices each rose 0.2 percent in December, reversing declines in November. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 5.9 percent, and the 20-city index rose 6.8 percent. The national index was up 7.3 percent year-over-year.

President Obama unleashed a predictable firestorm when he proposed during the State of the Union address that the minimum wage be increased to $9.00 an hour from the current $7.25. The reactions were expected: conservative economists criticizing the suggestion while progressives either endorsed it outright or noted the proposal was less than the $9.50 minimum wage proposed by then-candidate Obama.

Existing-home sales rose 0.4 percent in January to 4.92 million after December sales were revised downward, the National Association of Realtors reported. The median price of an existing single-family home fell to $173,600 in January, the lowest level since last March. The inventory of existing homes for sale fell 4.9 percent to 1.74 million, the lowest level since December 1999. At the reported sales pace, that represents a 4.2 month supply of homes for sale, the lowest supply since April 2005.