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Tag Archives: Mortgage Risk

Agency Purchase Loans Increase Substantially; Risk Index Hits Series High

May's NMRI stood at 12.33 percent, which was an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the prior three-month average and a jump of 0.7 percentage points from May 2014, according to AEI. The composite risk index reached a series high, as did the index for Veterans Affairs-backed loans, while the share of high-risk loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) increased.

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Agency First-Time Buyer Index Shows Mortgage Loans Are Becoming Riskier

Risk layering is largely responsible for the increase in risk on mortgage loans taken out by first-time buyers, according to AEI. Seventy percent of first-time mortgage buyers in April 2015 had a combined LTV ratio of 95 percent or more and 97 percent of them had a 30-year term. Without substantial home price appreciation, the low down payment and slow amortization makes it likely that these first-time buyers will have very little equity in their homes for many years.

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Mortgage Risk Rises, Causing Concerns Over Expansion of Credit Access

December's index, which saw about 215,000 new loans added to the pool of risk-rated mortgages, was up 0.4 percentage points from the average for the prior three months and 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, AEI said. As ever, the largest portion of risk came from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which had a risk index of 24.33 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the prior three-month average. Following that were the Veterans Affairs index, which was at 11.5 percent, and the Fannie/Freddie index, which was 6.2 percent, just above the 6 percent threshold AEI says is "indicative of conditions conducive to a stable market."

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Mortgage Risk Jumps from Increased FHA Loan Volume

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) put out on Monday a "flash release" of its National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), a measure of the likelihood of purchase loan defaults under stressful economic conditions. According to the group, the index climbed last month to 11.89, indicating nearly 12 percent of loans would be at risk of default in the event of another downturn.

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Mortgage Default Risk Falls in February

The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), a measure of loans' default risk under stressful conditions, retreated to 11.6 percent last month from January’s reading of 11.8 percent. To gauge where February’s index lies historically, 1990 vintage loans would have an estimated index value of 6 percent, while riskier 2007 loans would be up at 19 percent.

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Qualified Mortgage Guidelines Haven’t Lowered Risk

A new report by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) says mortgage risk remains unaffected by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) qualified mortgage (QM) guidelines. The group’s National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), a measure of loan performance under stressful economic conditions, increased to a reading of 11.8 percent in January from 10.6 percent at the end of 2013.

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