Tag Archives: Radar Logic

Radar Logic's composite to measure home prices may show monthly and yearly gains, but contrary to other reports, the analytics company argues that the increases don't mean prices have hit bottom. Radar Logic's CEO Michael Feder said people who look at current results and call a bottom are being dangerously short-sighted. The company contends the increases are due to temporary forces, such as the warm winter weather, and appreciation may not be consistent for the entire year based on previous trends.

While other experts and analysts have concluded home prices are on the rise and the recovery is under way, Radar Logic released a report challenging the upbeat viewpoint. The analytics firm stated in a report that it believes the oversupply of homes relative to demand will prevent sustained home price gains for some time. The argument made is that as buyers absorb the supply of homes for sale in certain markets and prices start to stabilize as a result, home owners who have been waiting on the sidelines to sell will do so once price start to improve. This will increase supply once again, and home prices will stop appreciating as supply exceeds demand.

Even though Radar Logic reported a monthly increase in home prices for March, the analytics company expects prices to fall and gave credit to temporary market forces for recent strengths seen in the housing market. According to Radar Logic, the RPX Composite price, which tracks home prices in 25 major metropolitan areas, showed a 1.8 percent increase on a monthly basis, but decreased by 0.87 percent year-over-year in March. With distressed homes remaining a significant portion of home sales transactions, Radar Logic dismissed the monthly increase and said significant discounts for distressed properties in relation to non-distressed means a further fall in prices.

With an estimated 250,000 foreclosed homes on Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's books, the government is considering inventive ways to divulge excess inventory and return stability to the housing market. The administration sent out a request for information (RFI) in August asking how a government REO rental program might work. The industry has responded with enthusiasm, submitting a slew of proposals now under consideration. Suggestions include lease-to-own options, rent-and-hold, and joint profit sharing.

Radar Logic plans to publish a response to the government's proposal to sell pools of foreclosed homes to investors to rent. In its RPX Monthly Housing Market Report for August, the company expressed concerns that the plan could negatively affect home prices in the broader market. Radar Logic believes the REOs sold in bulk to investors will come at lower prices than if they were sold individually - prices much lower than non-distressed sales, and these low prices could lead to low appraisals for other homes on the market.

Backlogged foreclosures, severe oversupply, and negative equity are pulling home prices down further, according to Radar Logic. The company tracks 25 major metropolitan areas across the country. Its latest index recorded a decline in the composite reading of 5.1 percent in April when compared to April 2010. The monthly sales rate remained more than 9 percent below April 2010. While sales of non-foreclosed homes increased more quickly than sales of foreclosed homes, RadarLogic says foreclosures are selling at an average discount of 39 percent.

Radar Logic says strong job gains will not bolster housing despite opinions from economic experts. The firm predicts a recovery in housing values will precede a recovery in the economy, spending, and jobs. Economists say the sliding job market, along with falling consumer confidence and other weak indicators mean the economic recovery has hit a ""soft patch."" There is a strong correlation, Radar Logic explains, between Americans' perceptions of their own wealth as expressed in the value of their homes and their willingness to recycle some of that wealth into the economy.

While home sales have slowed from the typical pace seen at the start of the spring buying season, Radar Logic says the foreclosure market is performing better than the market for all other homes. The company's count of motivated transactions - which includes sales at foreclosure auctions and subsequent bank-owned properties - has posted significantly stronger gains during the first part of this year than traditional home sales when compared to each market's historical performance. Radar Logic credits investment buyers for the foreclosure market's boost.

Radar Logic's latest RPX Composite, which tracks home prices in 25 major metros, declined to $179.50 per square foot in January, its lowest level since 2007. The company says the rapid decline suggests weak market fundamentals, including a high supply of homes coupled with high rates of mortgage defaults. The report also notes that sales of foreclosed homes by financial institutions, or ""motivated sales,"" made up 35 percent of all home sales as of January 20, the second highest share of motivated sales that Radar Logic has observed.

Radar Logic's 25-metro-area RPX Composite price slumped to its lowest value last week since its peak in June 2007. Based on data from home sales that closed during the 28 days ending January 3, 2011, the value was at $183.18 per square foot. That's 34 percent lower than the 2007 peak value of $278. The company says last week's reading is lower than the price for any other date since May 14, 2003.