Tag Archives: U.S. Economy

Why is the outlook for housing so bright for 2016?

Is the increase in the rate of GDP growth another sign of the economic growth the Fed is looking for in order to raise rates at their December meeting?

“Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past several months,” Duncan said. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time homebuyers."

The outlook for the annual growth rate of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the next two years looks somewhat softer compared to what it was three months ago, according to a survey of 45 forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Fed.

“Housing prices are rising and the constraint on growth in residential investment now appears to be more on the supply side, as building contractors struggle to mobilize the resources needed to construct more homes,” Dudley said. "The National Association of Home Builders’ index rose in October to the highest level since late 2005. While the housing indicators will likely continue to be volatile on a month-to-month basis, I expect the gradual improvement in the housing sector to continue.”

Ask the Economist is an ongoing series in which DS News talks with an economist about the most pressing issues facing the nation's housing industry and the economy. This installment features Curt Long, Chief Economist with the National Association of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU).

“As disappointing as last month’s jobs report was, this one more than makes up for it,” said Curt Long, Chief Economist of the National Associations of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU). “Job gains surged past analysts’ expectations, while the unemployment rate dropped even as 300,000 workers joined the labor force. Meanwhile, year-over-year wage growth hit its highest mark since mid-2009. Barring catastrophe, everything looks set for the Fed to raise rates in December.”

However, the decline in GDP growth coincides with a drop in a couple of key housing indicators for September. Thursday’s announcement of 1.5 GDP growth came the same day as the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index for September, which was reported to be at its lowest level in eight months.

The predicted moderate economic expansion does not change the Conference Board’s outlook for housing, which is largely positive. Ozyildirim told DS News earlier in the week that, “The single family housing market seems to be heating up, despite some potential volatility. Construction companies and workers are busy while home prices and mortgage rates remain favorable.”

Ask the Economist is an ongoing series in which DS News talks with an economist about the most pressing issues facing the nation's housing industry and the economy. This installment features Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist and Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board.