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Home | News | Market Studies | First-Time Homebuyer Traffic Nose-Dives in May: Survey
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First-Time Homebuyer Traffic Nose-Dives in May: Survey

Homebuyer traffic nationwide tumbled in May, according to an industry survey released this week. Most of the decline was attributable to first-time buyers who sharply reduced their home shopping last month, after the federal government's tax credit stimulus sunset.
[IMAGE] The survey's first-time homebuyer traffic index, developed by ""Campbell Surveys"":http://www.campbellsurveys.com, measures home shopping activity on a scale of 1 to 100. It registered an anemic 35.1 in May.

This was down from an index of 63.5 in April. Since September 2009, the index hadn't dropped below 50, which represents a flat, or neutral, condition in home purchase activity.

""The decline of first-time homebuyer traffic is undoubtedly related to the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit,"" said Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. ""Homebuyers had until April 30 to sign a purchase and sale agreement. Once we entered the month of May, the government stimulus disappeared.""

Thanks to its own tax break, California fared better than the country overall in terms of first-time homebuyer activity, the survey found.

The California index for first-time homebuyer traffic jumped to 63.1 in April, but still managed to stay relatively flat in May at 49.4. California enacted its own $10,000 credit for first-time homebuyers on May 1, the day after the contract expiration of the federal tax credit.

Real estate agents responding to the survey commented on the decrease in homebuyer traffic in May, which ultimately will produce fewer closed transactions later in the summer.

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""The expiration of the tax credit caused a significant decline in buyer activity in May, with buyers who didn't get a suitable house in time for the tax credit opting to wait and see what happens to prices without the availability of the tax credit. I expect to see a significant decrease in July's closed transactions,"" commented one agent in Arizona.

""We have noticed a substantial decrease in activity since April 30th. There are a lot less purchase and sales agreements being typed and other agents are complaining it's slow again,"" stated an agent in Massachusetts.""

An agent in Indiana added, ""I got no signed purchase agreements in May. I think the number of closed transactions in July will be very low.""

Traffic among current homeowners seeking to upsize or downsize also softened in the month of May, but to a lesser degree. The survey's nationwide index for current homebuyer traffic registered 45.5 in May, down from 55.2 in April.

Campbell says expiration of the homebuyer tax credit for current homeowners was less of a factor because the tax credit dollar incentive was lower, both on an absolute basis and on a percent of transaction basis.

Interestingly, the proportion of closed transactions for first-time homebuyers also declined in May, furthering a trend first observed in April. In March, first-time homebuyers accounted for 48.2 percent of home purchases; by April their proportion had declined to 43.4 percent.

The trend continued in May, with first-time homebuyers accounting for 42 percent of home purchases. Campbell says this decline is surprising since first-time homebuyers have until the end of June to close transactions and receive the federal tax credit.

""The first-time homebuyer tax credit, originally due to expire last November and then extended through the first half of 2010, may have depleted the pool of willing buyers earlier than expected,"" Popik said. ""Whether this depletion is temporary or whether it will be long-lasting won't be known until we measure traffic in June and July.""

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About Author: Carrie Bay

Carrie Bay
Carrie Bay is a freelance writer for DS News and its sister publication MReport. She served as online editor for DSNews.com from 2008 through 2011. Prior to joining DS News and the Five Star organization, she managed public relations, marketing, and media relations initiatives for several B2B companies in the financial services, technology, and telecommunications industries. She also wrote for retail and nonprofit organizations upon graduating from Texas A&M University with degrees in journalism and English.

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