Market Studies

Housing and economic activity has returned to or exceeded normal levels in 68 of about 360 metropolitan areas in the country (about 19 percent) as of the end of Q1 2015, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI) released Wednesday. The 68 markets represent a year-over-year increase of seven markets, according to NAHB.

Both the total bankruptcy filings for April and that average filings per day declined from March in the same number of filing days, continuing a trend that has been ongoing since the height of the financial crisis in 2010, according to April 2015 AACER bankruptcy data reported by Epiq Systems. In April, there were 77,884 total bankruptcy filings, down from March's total of 81,622 in the same number of filing days (22) during the month. April totaled 3,540 filings per day, compared with 3,712 in March.

The data showed that modification, collection, and foreclosure-related complaints were falling at an even fast rate than the number of non-current loans over that same period. In Q1 2013, the number of such complaints were received by the Bureau totaled 10,047; for the fourth quarter of 2014, that number was 4,741, a decline of 53 percent–compared to the 27 percent decline for non-current loan inventory.

The number of residential mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position during January 2015 was reported at slightly more than four million, which is a decline of 29 percent from the same period in 2014, according to Black Knight's March 2015 Mortgage Monitor released Monday.

In spite of the recent reports of slow economic growth in Q1, Fannie Mae has maintained its forecast for GDP growth of 2.8 percent this year and its position that the economy will "drag housing upward." Fannie Mae chief economist and SVP Doug Duncan pointed out that the actuals as far as housing – existing home sales, new home sales, and prices – were either at or very close to their predicted levels during Q1, and mortgage purchase applications have been way up for the last couple of months.

The index also broke down pending home sales by region. While the South and West saw an increase of 4 percent and 1.7 percent for March, respectively, the Northeast and Midwest saw drops, decreasing by 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent.

The homeownership rates declined by at least 0.6 percentage points year-over-year in all age categories (under 35; 35 to 44; 45 to 54; 55 to 64; and 65 and older), with the largest decline coming in the 35 to 44 age group (2.3 percentage points, from 60.7 down to 58.4 percent.

Speaking from the Milken Institute Conference in Los Angeles, Blackstone Mortgage Trust CEO Steve Schwarzman told CNBC on Monday that the housing market has been "coming back for quite some time" even though inventory is low and prices have not increased as much.

The thin shadow inventory compared with rising home values has caused the share of distressed home sales to drop to single digits. Since there will be fewer properties sold at deep discounts, this will cause home prices to strengthen, Yun said. "It also means that those practitioners who specialize in foreclosures or short-sales need to start thinking about a change in business models to normal home buyers and normal positive-equity home sellers," Yun wrote on the blog.

Due to current low interest rates and anticipated appreciation rates for the next few years, homeownership is "one of the last legitimate wealth creation opportunities," according to Tim Rood, chairman of Washington, D.C.-based business advisory firm The Collingwood Group in an interview with Westwood One radio host Dirk Van last week.