Market Studies

The number of markets listed on the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Improving Markets Index (IMI) continued to decline in August, though the index still sits well ahead of where it was last year, the association reported. ""While the number of improving housing markets this August remains well ahead of the same month last year, the index is affected by seasonal softening in home prices just as we saw happen in 2012,"" explained NAHB chief economist David Crowe.

It was a mixed week for mortgage rate reports following the release of July's employment numbers, which showed job growth coming in below the market consensus forecast. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.40 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending August 8, up from 4.39 percent last week. The 15-year FRM averaged 3.43 percent (0.7 point), unchanged from the previous survey.

The percentage of homeowners behind on their mortgage fell to the lowest level since 2008, with a decrease in 90-plus delinquencies driving the improvement, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national mortgage delinquency rate on one-to-four unit residences stood at 6.96 percent in the second quarter, a decrease from 7.25 percent in the first quarter and 7.58 percent a year ago. ""For most of the country, delinquencies and foreclosures have returned to more normal historical levels,"" said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist and SVP of research and economics.

For the first time since November 2012, asking home prices decreased month-over-month, slipping 0.3 percent from June to July, Trulia reported. ""If you were worried about a housing bubble, July's asking-price slowdown will probably be the best news you've heard this year,"" said Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist. Factors such as rising mortgage rates, growing inventory, and declining investor demand were attributed to the dip in asking prices.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance increased 5,000 to 333,000 for the week ending August 3, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists expected the number of claims to drop to climb to 336,000 from the 326,000 originally reported for the week ending July 27. The number of filings for that week was revised to 328,000, the lowest level since early May.

Undeterred by rising mortgage rates, the majority of consumers polled in a Fannie Mae survey expressed belief that the market will continue to improve, with 53 percent saying they expect home prices will go up in the next year--though that figure does represent a decline of 4 percentage points from June's high. The share of respondents who believe interest rates will continue to rise over the next year increased another 5 percentage points over June to a new survey high of 62 percent.

In July, national home prices jumped 9.3 percent year-over-year, led by gains in the West, according to Clear Capital's latest housing report. Among metro areas, price gains were especially strong in Las Vegas, where home values spiked 31.2 percent from last year. Despite the recent streak of impressive home price gains, Clear Capital expects the market to experience more moderate and sustainable increases in the last half of 2013 as homebuyers transition into the ""new normal"" the report explained.

The national mortgage delinquency rate sunk to 4.09 percent in the second quarter of this year, representing a near 26 percent decrease from the same quarter last year, according to data from TransUnion. The delinquency rate, which includes loans that are 60 days or more past due, also showed a 10 percent quarterly decline. The reduction was widespread across the country, with all states, plus the District of Columbia, experiencing annual declines in their delinquency rates. Furthermore, 95.4 percent of metro areas tracked saw annual declines in their delinquency rate in the second quarter, up from 91 percent in the first quarter of this year.

Double-digit annual increases continued in June as home prices surged 11.9 percent, CoreLogic reported Tuesday. The increase marks the 16th consecutive month of annual home price appreciation. From May to June, prices grew 1.9 percent. Even with the significant annual gains, home prices are still 19 percent below their April 2006 peak, the data provider revealed.

The number of job openings rose 29,000 in June to the highest level in five years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). At the same time, the number of unemployed individuals per job opening dipped below 3 (to 2.99) for the first time since October 2008. The number of unemployed per job opening fell sharply in the construction industry to 6.2 in June--the lowest level since July 2008--from a revised 8.7 in May.