Market Studies

With third-quarter numbers from most of the industry's heavy-hitters in, analysts with FBR Capital Markets say their forecasts--$1.6 billion in mortgage volume for 2013 followed by $1.4 billion in 2014--are still well within reach, even though they argue that declining interest rates and lower overall loan volume translated to disappointing mortgage numbers last quarter.

Existing-home sales slipped in September after reportedly reaching their highest level in nearly four years in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts attribute the drop to declining affordability resulting from limited inventory and rising home prices. Total existing-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million last month. August's sales were revised downward to 5.39 million.

One in five loans originated in today's mortgage market will not meet the requirements of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule that goes into effect in January, according to an audit of new loans by ComplianceEase. Of the 20 percent of loans that would not qualify, ComplianceEase determined fee levels would be the disqualifier for about half. The QM rule allows for points and fees of up to 3 percent.

As the fastest-growing segment of the population, Hispanic Americans will play an important role in the future of the housing market. Since the recession, homeownership has declined faster among Hispanics than among the overall population, dropping from 64 percent in 2012 to 46 percent today. Despite the decline, Hispanics are even more likely to view homeownership favorably than the general population, Fannie Mae reports.

Many in the real estate industry believe there is a listing shortage, but a close look at the numbers suggests buyers in most markets are purchasing homes in increasingly larger volumes--even if some of those sales involve off-market homes not yet listed. Buyers and their real estate brokers are getting creative in buying off-market inventory in a number of ways.

Even with concerns elevated over the government shutdown, sentiment among contacts of the Federal Reserve Districts remained ""cautiously optimistic"" about the nation's economic future, according to the Fed's Beige Book released this week. Reports on regional housing activity were generally positive, with most markets growing or at least not faltering. The Philadelphia District was the one exception.

Mortgage rates broke their streak of declines this week. Analysts say while the potential drag from the government shutdown and looming debt ceiling deadline had pulled rates lower in recent weeks, hopes that a promising deal was in the works served to ease those concerns and push rates higher. Freddie Mac reports the 30-year rate rose from 4.23 percent to 4.28 percent over the last week.

Real estate investors made an average gross profit of $54,927 on single-family home flips in the third quarter, RealtyTrac reported Thursday. The tracking company's data indicates investors' Q3 profit was up 12 percent from the average gross return a year earlier, driven in part by an increase in high-end flips of homes that were sold for $750,000 or more and concentrated in California and New York.

Global DMS, a provider of Web-based compliant valuation management software, announced that it launched AMCmatch.com, a search engine that allows lenders, servicers and other users of valuation products to efficiently locate and qualify the best fit appraisal management company (AMC) for their needs.

Servicers completed 67,000 mortgage loan modifications in August, bringing the total for the year to 580,000, according to HOPE NOW. Loan modifications increased 8 percent in August when compared to the month prior, and year-to-date loan mods outpace foreclosure sales by about 142,000. HOPE NOW reports about 23,000 short sales were completed in August.