Market Studies

From 2011 to 2012, the number of completed foreclosures fell in Massachusetts, while foreclosure starts experienced a significant increase, according to a report from the Warren Group. For the most part, however, a declining trend was seen when assessing foreclosure trends in December and in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December, the sharpest month-month drop since April the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Monday. Economists had expected a smaller 0.3 percent decrease to 106.1 from November's originally reported 106.4. The November index was revised down to 106.3. NAR economist Lawrence Yun blamed a tight inventory for the weakening index. Yun also noted the lack of homes costing less than $100,000, especially in the West.

Two housing reports in the week just demonstrated, yet again, economists are not infallible. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing home sales for December: 4.94 million against a consensus forecast of 5.1 million. Then on Friday, the Census Bureau and HUD reported jointly 369,000 new homes were sold in December compared with a consensus forecast of 388,000. There are several important housing related reports due out next week, but they will take a backseat to the report on fourth quarter GDP and Friday's report on the employment situation.

The industry seems to agree the multifamily housing market is recovering well and will continue to show positive signs this year. Both Fannie Mae and the National Association of Home Builders report low vacancies and climbing rents for 2012 and anticipate a strong market in 2013. Fannie Mae expects asking rent prices to increase about 2.5 percent this year and expects vacancy rates to increase to about 6 percent, keeping in line with historical norms.

Winter weather did not slow down the housing market's momentum, with homebuyer traffic still going strong in December, according to survey results from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey. The three homebuyer groups--current homeowners, first-time homebuyers and investors--all recorded their biggest traffic gains of 2012 in December, data from the HousingPulse survey revealed. The survey also measured the relative health of the housing market by assessing time on market, number of offers, closed transactions, and sales prices. Overall, survey data revealed all measures improved at the end of 2012.

The new servicing rules recently issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will benefit the mortgage servicing industry by creating uniform standards, but it will also increase compliance costs for the servicers, which will put pressure on smaller-sized entities, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. ""[S]imilar to other servicing-focused initiatives, the CFPB rules will further increase compliance costs for the industry, extend timelines, and potentially drive further consolidation within mid to smaller servicers,"" Fitch stated.

New home sales fell 7.3 percent in December to an annual pace of 369,000, the sharpest monthly drop in almost two years, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the report to show a sales rose to 388,000. The monthly drop in sales was the largest since February 2011, when sales fell 11.4 percent. Nonetheless, December 2012 sales were up 8.8 percent over December 2011.

Pro Teck's ranking measures inventory, days on market, sales and listing activity, the ratio of sales price to list price, and foreclosures and REOs to determine the best- and worst-performing markets in the nation. January's top 10 list includes a mix of markets from all regions across the country, and ""even those in the Bottom 10 list are showing a fair percentage of positive trends,"" said Michael Sklarz, principal of collateral analytics at Pro Teck. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas ranked as the No. 1 market in the country and was one of two Texas markets to make the top 10 list this month.

A recent report from verification services provider Kroll Factual Data, Inc., shows the risk of mortgage fraud rose 1.1 percent throughout the country between the second and third quarters of 2012. In some MSAs, the company found the risk of fraud rose from Q2 to Q3 by more than 50 percent. ""While fraud alerts declined in some MSAs, these declines were offset by significant increases in others. This spike in potential fraud is troubling, coming at the same time the mortgage industry is beginning to turn the corner,"" said Rod Bazzani, president of Kroll Factual Data.

Out of the 42 largest counties in the nation, all 42 exhibited price growth on a monthly, yearly, and quarterly basis in December, according to DataQuick's monthly Property Intelligence Report. DataQuick's monthly Property Intelligence Report (PIR) assesses the housing market based on valuation trends, REO inventory trends, and sales trends metrics. In addition to positive price growth in all 42 counties, sales also showed substantial growth in December. While home prices and sales improved, VP of analytics for DataQuick Gordon Crawford, Ph.D., noted foreclosures worsened compared to November.