Market Studies

After suddenly jumping 7.7 percent in September, the nation's delinquency rate fell in October, according to first look data from Lender Processing Services (LPS). The delinquency rate stood at 7.03 percent in October, a decrease of 4.91 percent from September and 7.19 percent from last year. Historically, LPS says the delinquency rate is actually expected to tick up in October due to seasonal effects. Overall, the number of properties 30 days or more past due or in foreclosure numbered 5.3 million.

Hiring in the mortgage industry increased in Q3 for the fifth straight quarter, according to Mortgage Daily's Mortgage Employment Index. The index shows 8,711 hires were made in the year's third quarter, up more than 3,000 from the last quarter and nearly 3,500 from Q3 2011. Even with an estimated 5,785 layoffs, the industry saw a net increase of nearly 3,000 jobs--more than double the gain in Q2.

The national mortgage fraud index fell to the lowest level in two years after spiking in the previous quarter, according to data from Interthinx. The mortgage fraud index dropped to 137 in the third quarter of this year, down 7.7 percent from the previous quarter and 4.5 percent from the same quarter a year ago. The number of metropolitan areas in the very high risk category also declined, falling to 70 in the third quarter from 91 in the second quarter. But, just two states--California and Florida-- accounted for more than half of the very high risk metros.

October marks the 12th consecutive month of monthly home value increases, according to Zillow, which reported a 1.1 percent increase over the month. Home values were up even higher on an annual basis, climbing 4.7 percent over the year and representing the greatest increase since September 2006. Chicago was the only one of the 30 largest metro areas Zillow measures to experience a monthly decline in home values in October.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate fell to 3.31 percent (0.7 point) over the week ending November 21. The previous week, the rate was 3.34 percent, and last year, the rate stood at an even higher 3.98 percent, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also experienced a decline this week, falling from 2.65 percent to 2.63 percent (0.7 point), according to Freddie Mac's data. This week last year, the rate was 3.3 percent.

Consumer confidence hit the wall in November as Americans sweat the rapidly approaching fiscal cliff, according to monthly survey results released by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed confidence over the economy increased just 0.1 percent from October to November, hitting 82.7 on the Index of Consumer Sentiment. Preliminary data released earlier in November put the index at 84.9, and economists polled by Reuters expected a median index of 84.5.

Given improvements seen in housing, Fannie Mae revised its housing forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 in its November economic outlook report. The GSE's Economic & Strategic Research Group anticipates single-family housing starts will jump 25 percent this year, then rise by another 22 percent in 2013. Existing-home sales should also rise and see a 9 percent increase in 2012 and a 4 percent gain in 2013. Even though reports on the housing sector give reasons to be optimistic, Fannie Mae still warned ""data continue to show a sluggish recovery overall.""

While various economic reports hint at improvements in the nation's economy since the economic crisis was in full swing, improvement is meek and recovery seems too strong a word to describe the progress thus far. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls the pace of recovery ""disappointingly slow."" In a speech before the New York Economic Club Tuesday, Bernanke pointed out some of the lingering headwinds preventing the economy from more momentous progress.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 41,000 to 410,000 for the week ending November 17, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists expected 415,000 initial claims filings. The previous week's report was revised upward to 451,000 from the originally reported 439,000. In addition to the direct impact on businesses, Hurricane Sandy, which ripped through the East Coast on October 29, forced the closing of government offices that process claims filed by telephone or online.

An analysis released by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods(KBW) found representation and warranty costs for loan repurchases remained elevated in Q3. According to KBW, current losses can mostly be attributed to loans sold to the GSEs. Fannie Mae repurchases totaled $2.02 billion in Q3, and its balance of outstanding repurchase requests increased to $16.2 billion. Meanwhile, Freddie Mac repurchases totaled $819 million, and its outstanding requests ticked up to $2.94 billion.