Market Studies

Distressed properties accounted for just 31 percent of existing-home sales in May, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday. The ratio of distressed homes - typically bank-owned or pre-foreclosure short sales - was down from 37 percent in April and 40 percent in March. A pick-up in non-distressed sales volume is typical for the spring and summer seasons, but last month, overall sales of previously owned homes dropped along with the distressed percentage to hit a six-month low.

The delinquency rate on loans included in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) fell four basis points in May to 9.18 percent, according to Moody's. The dollar balance of past due loans was approximately $56 billion. While loans totaling $3.4 billion became newly delinquent, previously delinquent loans totaling $4.1 billion became current, worked out, or were disposed. The top 25 metros continue to outperform the broader market with a delinquency rate of 8.48 percent, 70 basis points below the national average.

Markets across the country are in full-fledged correction mode. That combined with the prevalence of foreclosures has analysts at the research firm Capital Economics convinced that the double dip in home prices will continue throughout this year. In fact, they say the structural factors that are constraining demand, such as higher down payment requirements, probably mean that prices won't rise consistently until 2014. Capital Economics expects up to three million foreclosed homes to make their way to the market over the next few years.

Litigation related to mortgage servicing surged during the first quarter, after last fall's robo-signing issues raised questions about servicers' procedures and garnered widespread attention from mainstream media. Mortgage servicing litigation increased 88 percent over the first three months of this year, according to industry data released Monday. Investor-related litigation, however, eased, as did actions related to loan modification disputes.

John Burns Real Estate Consulting released a housing report card Thursday that confirms most key market indicators trending southerly, signaling more distress may be in store. The research firm notes that annual resale activity within the existing-home market has slipped to just over 5 million residences, and home prices by some measurements have dropped to 2002 levels. With these numbers, the firm says, affordability has never been better for entry-level buyers, or worse for move-up and move-down buyers.

Experts blame the massive inventory of existing homes on the market for hindering the housing sector's recovery. The overhang has been inflated by large volumes of foreclosures, and it's expected to grow with millions more coming down the pipeline. One economist says it will take 6.5 million new household formations to absorb the excess inventory. He expects it will take five years to achieve that goal and emerge from the self-defeating cycle of oversupply pushing prices down, the negative equity triggering defaults, and in turn, further increasing the oversupply.

Freddie Mac released its weekly survey of mortgage interest rates Thursday, which showed that the 30-year rate edged up 1 basis point while the 15-year rate dropped 1 basis point. The GSE's measurements for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) - which have been gaining popularity among some borrowers - mirrored the same, with rates on the 5-year ARM slipping and the 1-year ARM rising slightly.

RealtyTrac released a new report Thursday detailing foreclosure activity for the month of May. Filings dropped 2 percent from April and were down 33 percent from a year earlier. RealtyTrac attributed the decline to ongoing processing delays stemming from last fall's documentation issues. But the company says it's seeing hints of renewed activity, with spikes in various stages of the foreclosure process in some states. Georgia, for example, saw a 79 percent increase in new REOs last month.

Underwater borrowers have become a focus of numerous industry surveys and analyses, and a growing concern for market participants due to the potential of negative equity to trigger default. A recent study by CoreLogic delved deeper into the statistics to examine the distribution of negative equity by default status. Aggregate negative equity among mortgage borrowers was $750 billion as of the end of last year. CoreLogic says 8 percent of that total balance involved mortgages that were in foreclosure.

According to Freddie Mac's latest market outlook, over the first four months of 2011, sales of existing homes are up 5 percent from the pace of 2010 - in line with the GSE's earlier projections of a 5 percent annual increase in existing-home sales this year. Regardless, Freddie's economists say going forward, their forecast for sales growth remains dampened by declining consumer confidence and economic uncertainty. They point out that news of still-falling home prices has potential homebuyers waiting for a clear signal that home values have firmed.